The SPX declined 0.66 point yesterday to close at 2249.26. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2250 and took a tiny loss on the close.
Since 2002 (when I started keeping data in its current form) there have been 14 “Last Day of Year” occasions. Noting that the last TRADING day of the year appears on a Friday at least three out of every seven years (whenever the actual last CALENDAR day of the year falls on a Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Monday because of a Sunday holiday). Since then, when the LDOY has NOT been on a Friday, the LDOY has been up 5 times and down 4 times. But when LDOY is on a Friday, as it is today, there have been no advancing cases and there have been 5 declining cases. The daily model projects that today will make it six.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16997.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1790.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.49 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.49 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 28, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. The Santa Claus rally will probably fail for the third consecutive year (something that has never previously happened).
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market at 9:35 a.m. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
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