The SPX declined 7.73 points yesterday to close at 2191.08. After booking a 34 point cumulative profit on a Monday-Wednesday short side trade, TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2201 yesterday morning and have held the position overnight and into today. Our stop yesterday was at SPX 2184, but as I indicated on yesterday afternoon’s 2:42 message, “tomorrow… we will either retain the same stop or move it yet tighter again. With the daily model bearish today, raise that stop a tad to SPX 2187.
In the absence of news, the market is likely to move lower today, but the jobs report is due out this morning, and so, “absence of news” is an unrealistic expectation. That report will likely tell today’s story.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16960.89 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1732.15 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.79 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.79 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 18, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although market leadership rotation will continue to be more pronounced than usual.
The SPX-based daily model is bearish today, but the market is subject to wide swings because of the jobs report. TOT daily traders are currently 200% long, and as indicated in the first paragraph of this report, our stop is at SPX 2187. If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing up on the day, sell the position on the close If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing down on the day, hold the position over the weekend and into Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again prior to the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.