The SPX declined 31.18 points yesterday to close at 2041.89, wiping out all of Wednesday’s advance. Turov on Timing daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15917.82 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1582.96 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.06 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 8, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Despite December’s traditional strong record, it is quite possible that the highs for 2015 have already been reached.
Yesterday afternoon, at 3:42 p.m., on Turov on Overnight Possibilities, our sister publication, I said, “my recommendation for an overnight trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s opening) is: Sell short DIA.,” and “my recommendation for A ONE day trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s close) is: Sell short DIA.” I also said, “While it is impossible to calculate the Turov on Timing Daily Model until several hours after the close, in a news-neutral environment, the preliminary odds favor the SPX-based daily model being bearish for the next trading day.” That preliminary view is an accurate forecast more than 90% of the time, and it is indeed true for today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market. Once short, use a 1% protective stop on the position.
All Turov Investment Group managed accounts which permit short selling (i.e., the purchase of an inverse fund) went 200% short the Dow Jones Industrial Index mutual fund on yesterday’s close.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again later during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.