The SPX advanced 21.51 points yesterday to close at 2647.58. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2636 and took our lumps on the close. It’s been a rough week.. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17528.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2188.65 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.01 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.01 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now. There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining. I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).
The daily model is neutral today, and that is doubly true with the tax bill up in the air. We may take a position later in the day, but for the time being, stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours, or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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