This is Turov on Timing for Friday, December 1, 2006.
The SPX advanced 1.15 point yesterday to close at 1400.63. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. Bonds, which I mentioned favorably in yesterday’s message, advanced a healthy 3/4 %.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8867.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 941.25 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.42 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The first trading day of December has had a spotty record over the past half dozen years, and seasonality doesn’t factor in much today, in my opinion. The daily model is equally neutral, and about as frozen solid there as is the Midwest this morning.
My best educated-guess is that the stock market will drift slightly lower over the next two weeks or so while the bond market will drift slightly higher. Barring the always unpredictable “unknown news”, I would then expect a reversal of the two, with bonds getting soft and the stock market ending the year in very good cheer. But a lot can happen before New Year’s Day comes around. For the time being, stay out of stocks (and in bonds) and await a better stock trading opportunity.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.