This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 4, 2006.
The SPX advanced 1.72 point yesterday to close at 1280.27. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8940.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 821.34 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.89 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bearish.
The daily model is bearish today, and, in the news-neutral environment that we always assume (inasmuch as one never knows what the news will be), the market is likely to see a decent sized decline today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1279 stop or at SPX 1286 limit, whichever comes first. If you go short, and if the SPX goes against our position by 7 points, I will have an intraday update within 20 minutes of that occurrence. On the downside, if the SPX declines by 10 points from our entry level, use a protective buy stop 3 points below our entry level. Note that that stop is to be effective only if the SPX declines 10 points from our entry level. If short on the close, carry your position over the weekend and into Monday.
As always, when there is any doubt as to what the “official” market price is, we use prices as shown at www.bigcharts.com.
As I mentioned a few days ago, via reference to my interview on CNN, I’m rather bullish on bonds. My bond model (not reported regularly on TOT) is the most bullish it’s been in over a year, and the odds of long term interest rates declining in the short term are high. While that could be bullish for stocks, it has not always been so, and for those readers who want to “own” something, the US long bond looks mighty attractive.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.