The SPX declined 3.38 points yesterday to close at 1996.74. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1994 and took profits on the close at SPX 1996.74
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14119.53 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1537.81 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.18 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.18 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 22, 2014.) I HAVE BEEN ASKED, “DOES A BEARISH INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL READING IMPLY THAT YOU BELIEVE
THAT THE BULL MARKET IS OVER?” AND MY ANSWER IS “NO, IT DOES NOT! I WILL PROVIDE A COMPLETE EXPLANATION IN THE SEPTEMBER MONTHLY TUROV ON TIMING, SCHEDULED
FOR DISTRIBUTION ON LABOR DAY, SEPTEMBER 1.” The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, and the rally since August 8 is long in the tooth. I previously wrote
that I “expect to see the SPX decline by 50-100 points from its high by the end of September.” Basis futures prices, the September S&P contract traded 96
points below its high early during the pre-opening morning of August 8, before staging a significant comeback during daytime trading hours that day and then
continuing that comeback through Thursday. While the SPX has modestly exceeded its previous high, IMHO, its visit to the stratosphere is not likely to hold,
and SPX 1900 (about 100 points down) is more likely to occur first than SPX 2100 (about 100 points up).
The odds favor the market being up in the morning and getting hurt badly in the afternoon. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at “SPX 1997 stop;
1999 limit”. Note that that’s NOT a “one or the other” recommendation; rather it’s a “stop limit” recommendation (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stop-
limitorder.asp if you need a definition). If and when you go long, use a sell stop at SPX 1990, good until 10:45 a.m.
At 10:45, sell the long position (if taken) at the market, win, lose, or draw. Further IF (and only if) the trade had been profitable, try to sell 200%
short on a stop at the closest even price below the 10:45 long sale. (For example, if you sell long at 2001.65, then the 10:45 (and thereafter) sell short
stop attempt would be at SPX 2000 stop.) If you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on this possible short sale position.
Furthermore, regardless of and separate from the previous recommendation, at 3:00, go 100% short at the market, and at 3:15, go another 100% short at the
market. Use no stop on these two positions.
Finally, unless contraindicated by a contradictory intraday message, cover any short position and simultaneously go 200% long on the close, carrying the long
position over the three day weekend and into Tuesday.
I believe all of the preceding, complex as it may be, is straight forward and understandable IF you read it slowly and carefully.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll PROBABLY email you again later today, but if I don’t, then the next email will be six hours before the
start of Tuesday’s session. Either way, enjoy the weekend!
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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