The SPX declined 43.88 points yesterday to close at 2035.73. TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and were stopped out at SPX 2075.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15811.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1576.80 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.03 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 21, 2015.) Yesterday, I stated, “The ‘mechanical’ Intermediate Term Model is actually neutral right now.” I also made some other comments which I would rather forget.
The news from Asia (as of 11pm Thursday night) was not good. As Reuters reported, “Global stocks tumbled on Friday after a survey showed Chinese factories contracted at their fastest pace since the depth of the global financial crisis in 2009, sending investors scurrying to the safety of bonds and gold. Oil prices and emerging market assets also took a hammering, as fears of a China-led deceleration in global growth gripped markets. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 2.1 percent to its lowest since July 27, 2012. Markets in countries whose economic fortunes were closely linked to China’s growth tumbled. Japan’s Nikkei lost 2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi shed 2.2 percent. The mood in markets, already soured by overnight weakness on Wall Street, darkened further on a grim reading of China’s factory activity. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing index showed activity in China’s factory sector shrank at its fastest pace in almost 6 1/2 years in August as domestic and export demand dwindled. That, coming on the heels of weaker-than-expected data in July, stoked fears of a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy.”
The news-neutral Daily Model is bullish today, but the news (previous paragraph) is anything but neutral. We will stand aside for now and see how the market opens.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.