This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 19, 2011.
The SPX declined 53.24 points yesterday to close at 1140.64. TOT daily traders had a nice profit on the short side in the morning and then broke even on the long side in the afternoon. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12564.18 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 681.71 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.43 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The daily model is neutral today with large numbers of component indicators either strongly bullish or strongly bearish. In the aggregate, they cancel each other out. Complicating things, today is options expiration, which while normally quiet, may not be in the aftermath of yesterday’s tumultuous session. Without a strong signal from the daily model, I want to stay on the sidelines.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.