Another very good day for the home team as the SPX declined 38.10 points yesterday to close at 2430.01. TOT daily traders went 200% short on the SPX’s 2462.95 opening (on an SPX 2468 sell stop recommendation) prior to the SPX rallying to 2465.02, 19 minutes after the opening. We then covered the short position on the SPX 2430.01 close and simultaneously went 200% long, carrying the new position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17447.28 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1971.08 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.85 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.85 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
Although there are plenty of reasons to be fearful of further downside, the daily model is bullish for today. TOT daily traders went 200% long on yesterday’s close and have carried the position overnight and into today. Maintain the position with a protective sell stop at the lower of 10 points below the 9:32 a.m. SPX price or at SPX 2420.
If still long as we approach the close, we have a strange situation. On the downside, if the SPX is closing with only a small loss, specifically between 2427 and 2430, then there probably will be more selling on Monday, and TOT daily traders should sell the long position on the close. If the SPX is closing below 2427, the selling is probably done, and if still long, hold the position over the weekend and into Monday. On the upside, which is what I expect, if the buying is modest, specifically between 2430 and 2439, then the buying is probably not done, there will probably be more buying on Monday, and I recommend holding the position over the weekend. On the other hand, if the SPX is closing above 2439, then there is a good chance the buying is fulfilled, Monday should see a resumption of the selling, and TOT daily traders should take profits on the long position on the close.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the start of Monday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.