The SPX advanced 6.48 points yesterday to close at 990.51, almost exactly reversing Wednesday’s decline. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 979 on Tuesday, another 200% long at SPX 987.50 Wednesday, and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 7846.24 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 531.58 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bearish, although only by the narrowest of margins.
Today is options expiration, always a difficult day to predict. Furthermore, as reported by the Stock Traders Almanac (but I knew it anyway) 10 of the last 13 August options expiration days have been down. On top of that, the blackout brings a large amount of uncertainty into today’s picture, not only for the unknown economic impact, but because if lower Manhattan is still blacked out in the morning, and a lot of traders stay home, volatility could be even more than on a typical summer options expiration Friday.
However, as I’ve said often, the daily model is news-neutral, and the model is really bullish today (despite the August expiration history). TOT daily traders come into today’s session 500% long. Raise your stop at SPX 976. If the SPX rises to 994, raise your stop again to SPX 984. If not stopped out AND if the SPX is closing up on the session, carry your position over the weekend and into Monday. If the SPX is closing down on the session, close out your position on the close, and go into the weekend flat.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2003 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the publisher.