The SPX advanced 10.3 points yesterday to close at 2185.79. TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short, went an additional 200% short at SPX 2180, and have carried the positions overnight and into today. While the news media made a big deal about new market highs yesterday, for the week, the SPX is up an unimpressive 2.92 points. A decline of a mere 3 points today will push the week’s total negative. And before getting too excited about the new highs, new highs often precede bear markets (just as panic lows usually precede bull markets). The Bloomberg anchor, on the 1:00 a.m. headline news today, said, enthusiastically, “It couldn’t be better.” I remember a two frame cartoon from many years ago of an annual meeting in which the CEO said, in the first frame, “It couldn’t be better.” In the second frame, half the audience rushed out of the meeting to a bank of phones, no doubt to sell. After all, “It couldn’t be better.”
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16736.42 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1726.86 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.69 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.69 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however we have seen at least a pause in the advance. If the market doesn’t crack very soon, then it might not crack at all. While the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, the Model could reverse if the market doesn’t have a real “crack” soon.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Maintain the protective buy stop at SPX 2204.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later in today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.