The SPX advanced 4.54 points yesterday to close at 2357.49. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17162.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1898.56 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.04 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.04 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.
Unrelated to the Syrian conflict, the daily model is bearish today. However, I do not want to sell into EXTREME weakness IF the Syrian bombings bring out any market panic. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2355 stop; 2352 limit. (So, for example, if the SPX opens at 2354, that’s the price at which we’re short. If, for another example, if the SPX opens at 2357, we would go short at 2355 if and when the SPX declined to SPX 2355. And if, for another example, if the SPX opens at 2350, the recommendation would become a limit order to sell short at SPX 2352 if and when the SPX rose to that level.)
If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Political comment unrelated to the stock market: In the reptile house at the Bronx Zoo, at each venomous snake enclosure, is a plaque that says, “Please don’t bang on the glass; what would you do if it broke?” It’s easy to hate Assad and his vile actions. But as we have seen by overthrowing Hussein in Iraq or Gadhafi in Libya, power vacuums are not easily filled by friends of the United States. I don’t know what percent of the rebels fighting Assad are ISIS or al Qaeda sympathizers, but if Assad is overthrown, what comes next? While the attack on the Syrian airbase was an understandable response to a heinous act, if the US becomes more involved, will history treat our actions as a gift to ISIS? President Trump has made it clear in the past that he doesn’t want US troops in Syria, and that destroying ISIS is a primary goal. With the preceding in mind, US military action in Syria may be quite limited, regardless of the as-yet-unknown Russian response. As someone once said, “Once you take a mouthful of piping hot coffee, whatever you do next is wrong.” Additional commentary: It will also be interesting if and what Kim Jong Un has to say about the American attack….
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.