This is Turov on Timing for Friday, April 20, 2012.
The SPX declined 8.22 points yesterday to close at 1376.92. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13238.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 917.99 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.42 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it will end in late 2012 or early 2013), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
In recent years, options expiration Fridays have been generally quiet affairs, and in the absence of news, that is likely to be the case today. The daily model is neutral, and we will stand aside again.
Two important announcements, both regarding managed accounts:
1. The December 2011 Turov on Timing monthly report discussed the significance of High Frequency Trading and the adjustments to my models that had made as a result of complex research. Those changes were first applied to Annuity Program managed accounts on October 17, 2011. On April 17, 2012, two days ago, Turov Investment Group Inc. prepared a new Annuity Program Disclosure Document which included a track record report for the six months from October 17 through April 16. It showed that during this period, the SPX advanced 14.0% while real money Annuity Program client accounts advanced 29.4%. This new Disclosure Document will eventually be posted on my website, but it may take a month or so before that happens. In the interim, if anyone wants a copy of the new Disclosure Document, please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject VA DD. Furthermore, AFTER reading the ENTIRE Disclosure Document, if any Turov on Timing reader would like to come to San Diego and open an Annuity Program managed account, I will (1) reimburse your round trip coach airfare AND waive (not merely postpone, but waive) all Turov Investment Group management fees for the balance of 2012. If any existing Annuity Program clients wish to add additional funds to their account, the same fee-waiver for NEW money will equally apply for the balance of 2012. This special offer is for Turov on Timing readers only, and is valid for a commitment prior to the end of April and an actual account opening (or funds addition) prior to the end of May 2012.
2. Several months ago, I began daily publication of managed accounts trades in Turov on Timing. I had mixed feelings about doing so since (a) it takes additional time, and (b) I always encourage managed account clients to take a long term approach and not be overly concerned with day-to-day swings. My prime motivations were (a) to provide a service that a number of managed account clients wanted, and (b) to encourage non-client TOT subscribers to open a managed account. But something totally unexpected has happened: Before this daily listing, and for the prior 18 years that TOT had been published, we’ve had an 84% subscription renewal rate. That is extraordinarily high in the newsletter business, and I’ve been very proud of it. But since this daily listing, our renewal rate has dropped to 20%! Without knowing specific reasons for sure, my “best guess” is that some TOT subscribers are annoyed that their results have been less than the Annuity Program results! I could be wrong, of course, but it’s as good a guess as any. And since I want to see renewals go back to the old level, and since I have always felt that managed account clients should take a long term approach and not be overly concerned with day-to-day swings, I am reluctantly discontinuing this reporting part of the TOT service.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if needed.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.