The SPX declined 4.21 points yesterday to close at 2059.74. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2063.77, and another 100% short each at SPX 2059.00, 2059.57 and 2061.21, for an average price of 2061.464. We took profits on the entire position at the SPX 2059.74 close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16443.89 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1600.81 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.27 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.27 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 1, 2016.) Many criteria that I deem important are saying the market is ready to sell off sharply, but because they defy quantification in a usable manner, they are not part of the Intermediate Term Model (ITM). And “on paper”, the ITM looks bullish – but wait. It gets even harder: Today is the first day of April, and historically, the first days of February, April, May and July constitute virtually all of the historical bullishness on the first days of the 12 months. And my research for April 1 confirms that the market probably will be bullish today. However, after the close (four years ago) on Friday (emphasis added) June 1, 2012, the CNN said, “Wall Street suffered its bloodiest day of the year Friday as U.S. stocks sank more than 2% following an ugly jobs report. The Dow erased all its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into correction territory, down more than 10% from the year’s highs. The sell-off was broad, with all 30 Dow components ending in the red, and 97% of the S&P 500 closing lower.” And guess what report is coming out at 8:30 today, Friday (emphasis added)? Yup, the jobs report. Now, you might ask, what difference does one day make in analyzing the ITM? Good question; and here’s the answer. If the jobs report is more favorable than expected, and the market soars, the aforementioned “criteria I deem important” may become irrelevant, and we’ll be left with a positive ITM. On the other hand, If the jobs report is less favorable than expected, and the market tanks, the data I use for the ITM may deteriorate, and the ITM might not be bullish “on paper”. That’s why one day matters, especially when the ITM data is only marginally bullish, and the non-quantifiable concerns may disappear. So that’s my thinking process… What’s really important is that, over time, my data has been more correct than my opinions, and the data is now bullish. Also, over time, ignoring unknown and unknowable news has been advantageous. So reluctantly to be sure, we are declaring that the Intermediate Term Model has upticked to bullish.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2062 stop. If the SPX declines to 2058 before advancing to 2062, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2060 and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position over the weekend and into Monday.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.