This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 8, 2012.
The SPX advanced 7.12 points yesterday to close at 1401.35. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1402 and have held the position overnight and into today after being whipsawed on our previous position.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13237.47 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 942.42 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.05 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450).
I keep track of the Rydex twice a day funds since overnight news is most often reflected in gap openings AND if the news is significant, the gap will hold until the 10:45 a.m. pricing. Over the past ten years, there have been only two times (prior to today) when the NASDAQ 100 2x fund was higher at the 10:45 a.m. pricing than at the previous day’s 4:00 pricing for nine (9) consecutive trading sessions. The first occasion was December 30, 2004. The Rydex NASDAQ 2x fund closed that day at 113.95. By January 25, 2005 it had declined to 95.60, a drop of 16%. The second occasion was September 17, 2009. The Rydex NASDAQ 2x fund closed that day at 76.69. By October 2, 2009, it had declined to 71.32, a drop of 7%. Today is only the third time in the past ten years that the NASDAQ 100 2x fund was higher at the 10:45 a.m. pricing than at the previous day’s 4:00 pricing for nine (9) consecutive trading sessions.
TOT daily traders come into the session 300% short from SPX 1396. Maintain the position and the buy stop at SPX 1411.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during today’s trading session.
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