This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 1, 2012.
The SPX declined 5.98 points yesterday to close at 1379.32. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1386 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13202.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 920.39 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.34 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. As I’ve been saying for awhile, I expect to see SPX 1400 before SPX 1300 (although long term, I expect to see SPX 1000 before SPX 2000). We could see that 1400 as early as today.
While I would have preferred a smaller loss yesterday, the fact that the market was down actually increases the probability that it will be up strongly today! The first day of any month (even August, not one of the better ones) is historically far more likely to advance than decline. But, as indicated, August is often not up, and the parameters for its not being bullish would have been “ticked” if the market had advanced yesterday by any decent magnitude. Unfortunately, we have the Fed’s announcement this afternoon, and as a general rule, I dislike unknowns. In any event, as I have written so many times, over the long term, adverse news and favorable news balance out, and therefore a news-neutral approach is the best way to go.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. For the time being, maintain yesterday’s very tight stop at SPX 1378. However, if we get stopped out, I will be (uncharacteristically) looking for a favorable re-entry point.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.