This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, April 13, 2011.
The SPX declined 10.3 points yesterday to close at 1314.16. TOT daily traders went 400% long near the low of the day at an average price of 1312.495 and have carried that position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12387.08 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 855.23 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.48 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
In my 12:35 intraday update yesterday, I said, “I expect a very strong opening tomorrow,” and that’s why we carried the position overnight.
I expect most of today’s gains to occur in the early going, and I’m not going to stay around very long to see if today’s expected rally has legs. At 9:33 (that’s the “open” on a one minute bar chart at 9:34), note the level of the SPX and raise your stop to two points below that level. If still long at 10:45, sell the position at the market and move to the sidelines.
Furthermore, in the very unlikely event that the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is down on the day (i.e.; below 2302.89) at 10:45 a.m., the market is likely to have a huge decline for the balance of the day. In that case – and in that VERY unexpected case ONLY – TOT daily traders are advised to go a maximally bearish 500% short (“officially” basis SPX, as always) at the market at that time. If that occurs – and I REALLY don’t expect it to – use a 1% protective buy stop on the position through the close, at which time it should be covered if not previously stopped out.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session.
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