This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, December 14, 2010.
The SPX advanced a negligible 0.06 point yesterday to close at 1240.46. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12136.40 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 781.53 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.53 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
Despite the Intermediate Term Model having clearly been premature in turning bearish, the model still remains bearish. Although excessive bullish sentiment was not a factor in its turning bearish, it now is a significant reason for its remaining bearish.
The momentum late yesterday was certainly bearish. However, it is far from certain that the selling will accelerate just yet. Indeed, if we see some early morning strength, it could gain steam, as counterintuitive as that may seem. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1243 stop. If you go long, use a tight protective sell stop at SPX 1238 so that if the selling does resume, we won’t get badly hurt. On the upside, if the SPX advances to 1249, take your profit. If still long as we approach the close, liquidate the position on the close and go overnight flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.