This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 21, 2012.
The SPX declined 0.03 point yesterday to close at 1418.13. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13273.28 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 959.20 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.84 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Use a tight protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1424 as the risk of a further advance is higher than I would like. If the SPX is in positive territory at 10:45, cover the short and move to the sidelines. I expect it to be down by then, but if it’s not, we could see a quick push higher. If still short as we approach the close, cover the short on the close and go overnight flat – unless I contradict that with a late-session advisory.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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