This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 14, 2012.
The SPX declined 1.76 points yesterday to close at 1404.11. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1405 and took profits at SPX 1402.55.. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13250.82 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 945.18 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.02 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450.
Yesterday’s 1.76 point decline was consistent with what I had reported on yesterday’s hotline. As you recall, there were only three previous times in the past ten years that a string of six trading days from one Friday to the next, inclusively, were all up. They were followed by Mondays that all declined from 0.19% to 2.17 points. The following three Tuesdays were -7.85, +2.31, and +1.94.
In any event, the daily model is bearish today. However, going short just doesn’t “feel right” and I’m going to stand aside.
Separately, my NASDAQ model looks much stronger than my Russell 2000 model for today, and a trade of long NASDAQ and short Russell looks good. But that’s unofficial as Turov on Timing is an SPX-based service.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.