This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, April 12, 2011.
The SPX declined 3.71 points yesterday to close at 1324.46. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12380.42 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 865.53 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.30 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
Yesterday, I said, “I’m not sure that any early gap opening, if it occurs, won’t be the high of the day.” Well, it was, and so not buying into it worked out well. And I also said, “My NASDAQ model is indicating that IF the market is weak in the early going that further weakness later in the day is about a 55:45 probability – another reason not to get too enthusiastic on the long side.” Yup; that too.
The odds slightly favor weakness in the early going, but after the morning dust settles, the market should move higher (in the absence of negative news, of course). I anticipate going long at some point in the mid to late morning.
Stand aside for now, and I’ll email you again mid-morning
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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