This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, November 1, 2012.
The SPX advanced 0.22 point yesterday to close at 1412.16. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13387.89 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 953.23 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.04 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish – but barely.
The daily model is neutral today, but my NASDAQ (NDX) model is bullish. In a news-neutral environment, I think we’ll see some early morning softness, followed rather quickly by NDX strength. It’s then probable that the SPX will get some infectious strength from the NDX. While I prefer going long the NDX, this is an SPX-based service, and so I want to be bullish – but cautious. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1414 stop. If the SPX declines to 1410 before reaching 1414, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 1412, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.