This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, December 30, 2010.
The SPX advanced 1.27 points yesterday to close at 1259.78. Once again, TOT daily were on the sidelines and missed absolutely NOTHING as the market continues to be as active as a frog in winter. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12135.62 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 800.85 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.15 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
Despite the Intermediate Term Model having clearly been premature in turning bearish, the model still remains bearish. Although excessive bullish sentiment was not a factor in its turning bearish, it now is a significant reason for its remaining bearish. However, the odds are increasing rapidly that this overbought condition can get more extreme before it corrects, and the chances of an improvement in the Model are increasing – irrespective of my being rather unhappy at that possibility.
All the hoopla about the trading days immediately before the New Year being so seasonally strong notwithstanding, the following are the facts about what the SPX did on the penultimate (next to last) trading day prior to New Years Day in recent years:
Without the outlier in 2008, the only time we were in a clear-cut cyclical bear market (unlike the present), the average of those days was a mere +.12 point. Keep in mind, that’s one-eighth of a POINT; not 0.12%. In other words, BFD!
The daily model is neutral today. However, both my NASDAQ and Russell models are suggesting that we could see some upside movement in the afternoon. Remain on the sidelines for the time being, and if I see a buying opportunity, I’ll email you again intraday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session – or, as I indicated, sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.