This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, April 7, 2011.
A special Turov on Timing report is attached to this email. And while it deals specifically with Program VA investors, the philosophical and conceptual issues with which it deals are important for all investors.
The SPX advanced 2.91 point yesterday to close at 1335.54. TOT daily traders went long on the opening and sold out on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12375.05 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 876.61 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.12 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
Expert chartist, David Weis (email@example.com) makes the following comments in his service tonight, certainly worth considering: “The June S&P came very close to the February high [Wednesday] before giving up its gains. For the second consecutive day, the market closed near the low of its range. It means something. It reminds me of tornado weather. Growing up in the mid-South along the Mississippi River, there were times when the air became still and the light turned an unnatural color. Locals called it ‘tornado weather.’ Something is brewing in the S&P. The dreadfully low volume on the rally is not natural. It’s eerie. If long, take extra precaution.”
In my gut, I feel that David is right. However, the data I use doesn’t confirm – yet….
In the absence of news, I expect to see the market decline modestly in the early going, then turn around in mid-morning – quite the opposite of what we’ve been seeing. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1328 or lower AT OR AFTER 10:45 a.m. Do nothing until then. If you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, sell the position at that time and go overnight flat.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: As I write this, my internet service provider, Time Warner Cable, is STILL having intermittent outages in my area. So I might not be able to update whenever I want. They sent out a technician Wednesday afternoon, but the problem appears to be widespread. Their recorded announcement says they are working on it.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again whenever there is a need, subject to the prior paragraph’s limitations.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.