This is Turov on Timing for Monday, December 27, 2010.
The SPX declined 2.07 points Thursday to close at 1256.77. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1257.53 on an SPX 1258.50 stop and took our profit on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12147.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 797.84 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.23 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
Despite the Intermediate Term Model having clearly been premature in turning bearish, the model still remains bearish. Although excessive bullish sentiment was not a factor in its turning bearish, it now is a significant reason for its remaining bearish. However, the odds are increasing rapidly that this overbought condition can get more extreme before it corrects, and the chances of an improvement in the Model are increasing – irrespective of my being rather unhappy at that possibility.
All the hoopla about the trading day following Christmas being so seasonally strong notwithstanding, the following are the facts about what the SPX did on the first trading day following Christmas in recent years:
The average of those days was -.28 point. Furthermore, 2008 was a during a clear-cut cyclical bear market (unlike the present) and without that bounce-back day, the numbers really look like anything but bullish!
The daily model is bearish today.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at the market. Once you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. If not stopped out prior to 3:55, I’ll have a brief update at that time.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.