This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 6, 2012, the 67th anniversary of the nuclear age.
The SPX advanced 25.99 points Friday to close at 1390.99. TOT daily traders were 400% long for most of the session and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13250.46 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 932.06 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.22 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. As I’ve been saying for awhile, I expect to see SPX 1400 before SPX 1300 (although long term, I expect to see SPX 1000 before SPX 2000).
It was an interesting day Sunday for humanity. On one hand, the butchery continues from Syria to Wisconsin. On the other hand, a two year project culminated successfully on Mars. The best and the worst of humanity continues.
The daily model is bearish today although I expect to see the Russell do worse than the NASDAQ 100, and for the NASDAQ 100 to do worse than the SPX. That’s not merely a function of relative volatility; it’s primarily a function of signals on those specific models. However, if the SPX declines during the first 75 minutes of the trading session today, then the selling in the SPX could get nasty as well.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1390 stop. If the SPX advances to 1394 before reaching 1390, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 1392. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.