This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 27, 2012.
The advanced 9.05 points Friday to close at 1411.13. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1402 and have held the position over the weekend and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13204.39 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 952.20 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.87 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
On Friday, I said, “Significant news will always overweigh ANY model,” and we certainly had that as the market rallied on the Bernanke letter to Issa story. However, in my opinion, the most important news of the day was the statement by Gov. Romney to Fox Business news that if he were President, he wouldn’t re-nominate Bernanke to be Fed Chairman. While not a surprise by any means, it speaks volumes about what the Fed is likely to do in the months until the November election: There is no question whatsoever that Bernanke wants to keep his job and does want to be re-nominated – and only President Obama will do that. So… Do you think he will do whatever he can to help Obama get re-elected? Duh… Yeah… And that will be bullish for the stock market in September and October.
Nevertheless, while the market is likely to get stronger as we approach the election, the daily model is bearish today. Unfortunately, the after-the-close news story about Apple’s (AAPL) huge courtroom victory has propelled the stock 12 points higher in after-hours trading, and that has boosted NASDAQ futures and has given a modest lift, as well, to S&P futures. Whether those gains hold during the trading session is, of course, unknown (and I believe, unknowable). In any event, TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Maintain the protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1416.02.
If the market is CLOSING below 1402, and you have not previously been stopped out, take your profit. If the market is CLOSING above 1402, and you have not previously been stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Tuesday. (I realize this is contrary to “conventional” technical analysis, so there is no need to email me about that apparent “contradiction”.)
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 28 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.