This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 20, 2012.
The SPX advanced 2.65 points Friday to close at 1418.16. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1404.40 on Thursday and took profits on the SPX 1415.51 close Thursday. We also went 100% short on Thursday’s close, and another 300% short at SPX 1415 Friday morning, prior to covering half the position on Friday’s close. We have held the remaining 200% short position over the weekend and into today. For the week as a whole, the SPX advanced 12.29 points while TOT daily traders advanced 29.75 points.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13273.22 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 959.23 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.84 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Use a tight protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1424 as the risk of a further advance is higher than I would like.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today.
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