This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 13, 2012.
The SPX advanced 3.08 points Friday to close at 1405.87. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1403 on Thursday and took a small profit by selling on Friday’s close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13243.47 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 946.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.99 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450.
Friday’s advance represented only the third time in the past ten years that a string of six trading days from one Friday to the next, inclusively, were all up. In all those cases, the following Monday was down a little, and the week as a whole was rather uneventful. Here’s the SPX data:
Mar 20-24, 2006
Nov 20-24, 2006
Mar 8-12, 2010
Unrelated to the above, the daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1405 stop. If the SPX advances to 1408 before reaching 1405, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 1406. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.