This is Turov on Timing for Monday, April 11, 2011.
The SPX declined 2.03 points Friday to close at 1328.17. TOT daily traders took a scalping loss on a 300% long position which wiped out much of Thursday’s gain. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12380.42 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 869.24 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.24 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
The daily model is bullish today, but only modestly. Overnight futures are up as I write this; however, I’m not sure that any early gap opening, if it occurs, won’t be the high of the day. And if the overnight futures don’t hold their gain, that wouldn’t be encouraging either. So, I’m going to err on the side of caution, override the daily model, and stand aside. Side note: My NASDAQ model is indicating that IF the market is weak in the early going that further weakness later in the day is about a 55:45 probability – another reason not to get too enthusiastic on the long side.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.