This is Turov on Timing for Friday, November 2, 2012.
The SPX advanced 15.43 points Thursday to close at 1427.59. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1414 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13415.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 968.66 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.85 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish – but (still) barely.
On Thursday’s message, I said, “my NASDAQ (NDX) model is bullish (and it’s) probable that the SPX will get some infectious strength from the NDX (and) while I prefer going long the NDX, this is an SPX-based service, and so I want to be (cautiously) bullish (the SPX).”
So what happened? The NASDAQ had its best day in eight weeks (according to CNBC). The NDX advanced 1.5% and the SPX was up 1.1%. All TIG managed accounts that permit using the NDX were 200% long the NDX from Wednesday’s close, and all TIG managed accounts that permit using only the SPX were 200% long the SPX from Wednesday’s close. TOT daily traders were also long 200% the SPX, and the only reason I didn’t recommend a larger position was that I believed that the NDX would be the catalyst for the SPX’s strength (and it was), but I was uncertain as to what extent it would pull up the SPX.
I expect more of the same today, although probably not to the same ebullient extent. Furthermore, I expect to see the NDX exhaust itself within the first 75 minutes of trading. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Because the NDX is getting tired, and it is the market leader, and because NDX leader Apple (AAPL) was noticeably soft Thursday (up only 0.22%), I want to lock in the majority of today’s SPX profit. TOT daily traders are advised to raise their sell stop to SPX 1424. If the SPX advances to 1430, raise the stop to 1426, and for each additional 2 point advance, raise the stop an equivalent 2 points. At 10:45, if still long AND if the SPX is up on the day, take your profit. At 10:45, if still long BUT the SPX is down on the day, continue to hold the position with the aforementioned stop framework. If still long as we approach the close, take your profit on the close and go into the weekend flat.
And with that in mind, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, have a great weekend, and I’ll update again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.