“It’s Groundhog Day, campers!”
The SPX declined 1.83 points yesterday to close at 2821.98 in a session that waffled between a small gain and a small loss. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and sold out on yesterday’s close for a small loss.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17545.21 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2363.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 7.42 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.42 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph updated February 2, 2018.) I’m not thrilled about the Intermediate Term Model waffling back and forth, but I have to write it as the data sees it. The Intermediate Term Model has downticked to bearish, and after some market-joy at the Amazon numbers, a break below SPX 2800 is likely. Repeating the Intermediate Term Model is bearish.
The daily model is also bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2821 stop. If the SPX rises to 2824 before declining to 2821, raise the stop to SPX 2822, and for each additional 2 point rise, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Turov on Overnight Possibilities (TOP) summary (with one day lag): On Wednesday afternoon, prior to the close, TOP recommended buying the NASDAQ ETF, QQQ, on the close and holding it until yesterday’s close. That did not work out well, and we had a 0.85% loss on the position. I expect about 60% winners and 40% losers, but past results, yadda, yadda, you know the rest. We limit the number of subscribers we accept for TOP so as not to have an undue market influence; we have four openings left.
Our BOND model remains bearish.
Our GOLD model remains bearish.
Implied question: Is it unusual for the Intermediate Term Model, the daily model, the bond model and the gold model to all be bearish in a primary bull market? Answer: yes.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again prior to Monday’s market opening.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2018 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. Any subscriber who is found to be violating the proceeding by forwarding this e-mail to another person will have his or her subscription canceled without refund or compensation. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.
“It’s Groundhog Day, campers!”