This is Turov on Timing for Friday, December 31, 2010, the last day of the decade.
The SPX declined 1.90 points yesterday to close at 1257.88. TOT daily traders took a tiny loss on a small position, as the market gave back a rally attempt late in the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12133.76 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 798.95 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.19 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
Despite the Intermediate Term Model having clearly been premature in turning bearish, the model still remains bearish. Although excessive bullish sentiment was not a factor in its turning bearish, it now is a significant reason for its remaining bearish. However, the odds are increasing rapidly that this overbought condition can get more extreme before it corrects, and the chances of an improvement in the Model are increasing – irrespective of my being rather unhappy at that possibility.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1257 stop – in other words, at the first sign of weakness. If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1267. If not stopped out, cover your position on the close and go into the new year flat.
And with that in mind, I wish you all a safe weekend, and much joy and happiness in the New Year. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 9:00 a.m. Monday morning. Note: That’s 9:00 a.m. Monday morning.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.