This is Turov on Timing for Friday, December 17, 2010.
The SPX advanced 7.64 points yesterday to close at 1242.87. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1235 at 9:57 and covered at 10:45 at SPX 1236.04. Also at 10:45, TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1236.04 and took a nice profit by selling the position at SPX 1242.87 on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12149.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 783.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.50 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
Despite the Intermediate Term Model having clearly been premature in turning bearish, the model still remains bearish. Although excessive bullish sentiment was not a factor in its turning bearish, it now is a significant reason for its remaining bearish.
The SPX outlook is modestly bearish today, but both the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100 are likely to do better. The best trade of the day looks like a hedge, long the Russell and short the SPX. Officially, as an SPX-based service, we will stand aside.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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