This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 24, 2012.
First, a small clerical item: The last two emails had a date of Wednesday, August 22. They should have said “Thursday, August 23, 2012.”
A thoroughly nasty day for both the market and for the home team as the SPX declined 11.41 points yesterday to close at 1402.08. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1412 on Wednesday and took our loss on yesterday’s close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13231.78 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 943.15 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.03 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. However, the risk of unexpected news, especially from Europe, could move the market swiftly and in an unpredictable direction. Significant news will always overweigh ANY model.
As I write this, overnight futures are up a tad. In the absence of overnight news, that implies a somewhat stronger opening in the morning. But I expect that strength to dissipate quickly, as the daily model is bearish today. However, I expect most of the day’s damage to come early on as my intraday models are preliminarily looking somewhat stronger for the afternoon, assuming the morning is down. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1402 stop – in other words, at the first sign of weakness. If the SPX advances to 1406 before reaching 1402, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 1404. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Use a 1% protective buy stop on the position, if and when taken.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.