This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 17, 2012.
The SPX advanced 9.98 points yesterday to close at 1415.51. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1404.40 on Thursday and took profits on the SPX 1415.51 close yesterday. We also went 100% short on yesterday’s close and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13285.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 956.58 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.89 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I expect to see SPX 1350 before SPX 1450.
As I said yesterday would be the case, the daily model is also bearish today.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short (from yesterday’s SPX 1415.51 close). Go an additional 300% short at SPX 1415 stop. If the SPX advances to 1418 before reaching 1415, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 1416. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the 400% position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today.
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