This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, June 29, 2010, the antepenultimate day of the month.
The SPX declined 2.19 points yesterday to close at 1074.57. After being on the sidelines throughout the ultimately uneventful trading session, TOT daily traders went 200% long on Monday’s close and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12034.25 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 615.64 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 19.55 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then) but the current cyclical bull market probably has further to go before topping out, most likely in 2012, but not necessarily at significantly higher levels than at present.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish, but it is holding on to that reading by the narrowest of margins.
Markets around the world are following the lead of Shanghai, which fell over 4% on worries over growth levels. Futures in the U.S. are implying a decline in the SPX of 1% to 1.5% when the market opens.
The news-neutral daily model is bullish today, but the world is not news-neutral. TOT daily traders went 200% long on yesterday’s close in anticipation of an upside gap, but the news is trumping that forecast, and we’re almost certain to see a downside gap. How the market acts after the opening is absolutely critical. Since the odds favor a bounce upwards after the opening, the most significant factor this morning will be whether that bounce can hold or whether it gets reversed in rapid fashion. I’m not recommending a stop on our position at the present time (since I think most of the morning’s damage will occur on the opening) but I will be watching and evaluating the market carefully, and I will have an update no later than 10:50.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again no later than 10:50.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.