This is a special 12:30 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Tuesday, October 2, 2001.
Throughout today, my intraday model has shown no positive divergence when the market has been pulling back, and it has shown modest negative divergence when the market has been advancing. This means that the so-called smart money is not buying the dips and to a modest extent is selling the advance. This smart money is by no means always right, but unless there are lots of other good indicators that justify defying their judgement, it is wiser not to. I would not want to go short, inasmuch as the daily model is bullish, but being long is rapidly becoming riskier than I would like.
TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1042 this morning. As I write this, the SPX is about 1044. Raise your protective sell stop up to a breakeven level of 1042. If the SPX rises to 1050, raise your stop to 1045, and for each additional 5 point advance, raise your stop an equivalent 5 points. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for calling, and I’ll speak with you again six hours before the start of Wednesday’s trading session.