This is a 10:42 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Monday December 31, 2007.
A few years ago, in a daily message, I said something like, “the odds of the market advancing tomorrow are about 90%.” So when the market declined, I received an email from a subscriber asking, “What went wrong?” I responded, “Nothing went wrong. The forecast that there was a 10% chance of the market declining was 100% correct.”
Now that may sound like a bit tongue in cheek (and it is “a bit”) but it really is the reality of stock market forecasting. What I do – and despite this December, the long term results are outstanding – is forecast probabilities. Sometimes probabilities work better than forecast (and I look like a genius) and sometimes probabilities work poorer than forecast (and I look foolish). But think of a random probability – flipping a fair coin. If you flip it 10,000 times, you’ll end up with pretty close to 5,000 heads and 5,000 tails. But along the way, there will be numerous strings of five heads in a row and numerous strings of five tails in a row. That’s why – regardless of whether I’ve been “hot” or “cold”, I always advise looking at the long term. I may have a very short strategy as a mechanism for trading, but my orientation is always the long term. Those of you who have been long term subscribers understand this well. Those of you who are fairly new subscribers will get to appreciate it over time.
In any event, returning to the present: TOT daily traders came into today’s session
200% long, and we were stopped out at SPX 1473. The market does not look good, and my intraday model is forecasting more weakness. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market. I’ll use the 10:46 opening price on Trade Station as our “official” price. Use a protective buy stop at SPX 1478 on the position. If not stopped out, cover your short on the close and go into the new year flat. Preliminarily, the daily model is looking bullish for Wednesday, and we will probably go long Wednesday morning.
May your holiday be pleasant tomorrow, and may the New Year bring you all that you desire.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Wednesday’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.