This is a 10:30 a.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Thursday, May 27, 2004.
The market is up about 3/4% on short covering this morning, as oil fell below $40 a barrel. Whether the market and/or oil stays where they are, only time will tell.
But I was glancing at page 46 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (www.stocktradersalmanac.com) and I noticed a few interesting facts:
1. For the ten year period covered by the Almanac, there has NEVER been a pre-Memorial Day week with less than two losing sessions during the week. This week, the broad market has been up every day so far (although the narrowly constructed Dow was down a hair on Monday because of one weak component stock).
2. Thursday and Friday of the pre-Memorial Day week have BOTH been up only once during the ten year period – and that followed a very steep selloff on the previous Monday, leaving that week down as a whole. All nine of the other instances saw either Thursday and Friday going in opposite directions or saw both Thursday and Friday down.
3. Of the past five years, the full week prior to Memorial Day has always been down.
Now, none of these facts is material in the composition of the Daily Model, inasmuch as one of the criteria of the Daily Model is that there be an identifiable plausible reason for each input factor. However, the previous observations are interesting, at the least.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2004 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.