This is a 10:30 a.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday December 21, 2007.
The market is up sharply, with the SPX advancing about 20 points. CNBC reported that first half-hour volume set a record; the reason was, of course, quadruple expiration. Yahoo Finance reported, “The advance is being fueled by a strong earnings report from Blackberry maker Research In Motion and a Wall Street Journal report that indicates Merrill Lynch may receive a $5 billion cash infusion from a state-owned Singapore investment firm.” None of these events have staying power, in my opinion.
When faced with a large move in the direction opposite from what I anticipated, I always ask myself the question, “What would I do if I had no position?” The answer this morning, based on my indicators, is “I would go short.” Well, that’s where we are already, and because of the answer to my self-posed question, that’s where I would remain. My recommendation is to continue to hold the short position without a stop. The odds are fairly high that the market will close today lower than where it is now (although probably up on the day), and the odds are fairly high that the market will be lower by 10:30 Monday morning than it is on today’s close.
Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you six hours before the start of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.