This is a 10:15 a.m. update of Turov on Timing for Friday, October 4, 2002, distributed about 15 minutes earlier than originally expected.
There were a lot of people seriously worried about this morning’s job report. For example, about ten days ago, some “analyst” was interviewed on CNBC (yes, once in a blue moon, I actually turn the volume on there) saying he expected the jobs data on October 4 to be so bad that the selloff could likely be the final end of the bear market. Babble, babble, babble – but – there was a LOT of worry on the street about the report.
So when the actual data was released two hours ago, and it was far better than expected (unemployment was down, not up, and the payroll numbers, while poor were (a) less poor than some had expected and (b) accompanied by a big upwards adjustment for the prior month), a very big jump in the futures would not have been an unreasonable expectation. Yet, after an almost instantaneous 5 point pop, they grudgingly added only another 4, and then slipped back to up about 5 as the Globex session closed. Since then, in the day session’s first hour of trading, they’ve been very unimpressive and are currently 10 points BELOW yesterday’s closing price.
The daily model, which is, of course, news neutral, is bearish today, although I did not want to suggest going short prior to the release of the jobs data. If we had had a big pop up, coupled with negative divergence on my intraday model, THAT would have been a great shorting opportunity for a day trade. But that’s not the way it’s played out so far, and while the lack of a rally when a rally is a reasonable expectation is often an excellent reason for shorting, doing so into weakness is just as often an invitation to a whipsaw.
Nevertheless, the inability of the market to rally significantly so far today must be considered a serious negative, and today is taking on some of the aspects of what I’ve called, in the past, a fulcrum day – a day with more than usual significance to influence future trading trends. But it doesn’t have all the attributes necessary to qualify, and, equally “of course”, the day is far from over.
I would be comfortable going short into a good rally if there were negative divergence on my intraday model, and I’d be equally comfortable going long into a serious selloff if there were positive divergence on my intraday model, but neither situation is extant. I’m not planning a specific intraday update later (because I don’t know if either of those events will occur, or if something equally opportunistic will avail itself), but I will be watching the market carefully, and if something warranting another message avails itself, I will report to you again.
Otherwise, have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service to you, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2002 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the publisher.