This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, December 25, 2002. Merry Christmas. As will be explained in a moment, this will be the last Turov on Timing for Year 2002.

The SPX declined 4.91 points yesterday to close at 892.47. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 894 and have carried the position overnight.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 7357.33 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 433.54 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish.

Both the long and short term models remain bullish. Because of my travel plans - more in a moment - if the SPX should close below 863 anytime this week or next, then long and short term investors should move into cash, and we will “officially” deem both models as being downgraded to “neutral” should that occur.

The market had shown some modest strength overnight Tuesday, but the pre-NY-opening durable goods numbers spooked it, and it was never able to recover. The little spat of additional selling in the late going was simply a function of the market not having been able to rally on Christmas eve, traditionally one of the strongest days of the year.

The market has spent most of the past six months back and forth in a narrow range around SPX 900. Neither bulls nor bears can get an edge. Longer term - “read” Year 2003 - I’d expect to see the “Steer Market” I described two months ago. Shorter term, anything can happen as the political and military developments will probably write the script.

As you know from the December monthly issue of Turov on Timing, I’ll be traveling overseas over the holidays. In fact, I’ll be over the Pacific Ocean in just a few hours. I originally had thought that I’d be recommending a long position pre-Christmas, and then following it up with trailing stops as the market rallied. But the lackluster trading and the failure of the market to advance on Christmas eve, has put considerable doubt into that plan. This is a market whose significant danger is belied by the lackluster trading we’ve seen for months. For that reason, I’m going to “officially” recommend a very tight stop on our existing position - good ’til cancelled - and to suggest stepping aside for the balance of my trip if stopped out.

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Raise your stop to SPX 888. On the upside, if the SPX can make it to 955 before declining to 888, then liquidate the position there. This recommendation is valid through the close of trading on January 3.

Have a wonderful holiday, a healthy and prosperous 2003, and I’ll email you again in the early morning hours of Monday, January 6, 2003.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2002 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the publisher.