This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 2, 2007.

The SPX advanced 10.54 points yesterday to close at 1465.81.  However, the advance/decline ratio was negative on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, and the 10 most active NYSE issues were evenly balanced with five up and five down.  All of the gain yesterday was a function of buying in the big blue chips: Nine of the Dow 30 were up by a full point or more.  After booking a big profit on Tuesday, TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9433.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1006.88 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.37 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.

On yesterday’s hotline I said, “ My best educated guess is that the market will be soft in the morning and then put in a good rally in the afternoon.”  Bingo!!  But risk was “far too high to venture in, on either side of the market right now,” and so we stayed on the sidelines awaiting a better trading opportunity. 

The daily model is bearish today, but risk is too high to take a large position.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1478 limit or at SPX 1461 stop, whichever (if either) comes first.  If you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on your position.  If the position goes 10 points in your favor, lower your stop to a breakeven.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.