Turov on Timing for Friday, December 29, 2000
This is Turov on Timing for Friday, December 29, 2000, the last trading session of the 20th century.
The SPX advanced 5.29 points yesterday to close at 1334.21. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% long and have held the position overnight and into today.
The bond model remains neutral, and the gold model remains bullish.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish.
However, both the long-term model (a six month perspective) and short term model (a one month perspective) remain bullish.
Historically, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, the S&P rises 71% of the time on the final trading day of the year. However, that still means that it declines roughly 30% of the time. So, it’s not a gimme that we’ll advance today, especially since the S&P’s now risen the last five consecutive trading days, no mean feat in a primary bear market. As was the case yesterday, the directional component of the daily model remains bullish, but the risk component of the model is quite high. Considering the five day string, I’d be disinclined to risk much of our significant paper profit. For that reason, we’ll use a very close stop on our position, and not get too greedy. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% long. Maintain your position, but in light of the dramatically increased risk, raise your stop to SPX 1333.21, precisely 1 point below yesterday’s close. I’d only want to stay long if the market is solid from the get-go and maintains that strength throughout the day. On the upside, if somehow the market miraculously gets to 1369, take your profit. If neither level is reached, carry your position over the New Year’s weekend and into tomorrow.
Candidly said, Year 2000 has been a fabulous year for me and for those subscribers who followed my recommendations. I appreciate your loyal support, and I’ll do my best for you again in the New Year. Have a safe holiday and a wonderful 2001.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 6004.24 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 875.28 points in the index itself over the same period.
Thanks for calling, and I’ll speak with you again in 96 hours.





