Turov on Timing

Yet another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 19.43 points Friday to close at 1142.62.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1184.50 on Wednesday and took profits Friday at SPX 1151.  We are currently on the sidelines.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8600.58 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 683.69 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral.  The horrendous weakness of last week has downticked the short term model from bullish to neutral.  Repeating, both the long and short term models are now neutral.

At times in the past, I have blamed “bad luck” on a bad day, and while I rarely get a complaining email about such nomenclature, I assume there probably were a few smirks out there.  Well, “bad luck” really does sometimes happen, and just to be fair, Friday’s nice gain (but not Wednesday’s or Thursday’s) was mainly “good luck.” 

The daily model measures probabilities in a news-neutral environment (since all news is unknown until it happens, or it wouldn’t be “new”).  But, of course, in the real world, news does happen.  Sometimes we get lucky, and the news favors our position, and sometimes we get unlucky, and the news harms it.  In the long run, they average out and make for a news-neutral result.  But in the short run, they have an impact.  Anyway, the horrendous news on IBM, coupled with the March industrial production figures and the New York Empire State manufacturing survey, all went our way (read “bearish”), and that “good luck” increased the size of our already ample profit.  Just remember that the next time the market lays some “bad luck” on us!!!!

The daily model is neutral today, a function of the risk component of the model being at an almost maximum level.  Simply put, more bad news, and the market could get smashed again.  Good news, and we could have a powerful rubber band spring-back rally.  Sit on your profits and your capital, and await a better trading opportunity.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 11.74 points yesterday to close at 1162.05. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1184.50 on Wednesday and have carried the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8567.43 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 703.12 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains stubbornly bullish.

Today has all the makings of a potential turnaround day. Think about it: The SPX broke to new lows yesterday. And, after the close, negative news on IBM socked the tech stocks, and the NASDAQ futures are off sharply. The potential for capitulation selling on or shortly after the opening certainly exists, removing stock from most weak hands and into the strong hands of specialists and market makers. And while the market will probably be down on the day today (although that’s far from a certainty), I’d be surprised if futures didn’t CLOSE the day higher than where they open the day session).

The daily model is neutral today, and I’d be looking to take profits on our short position. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short from SPX 1184.50.. Lower your stop to SPX 1166.60. If the SPX declines to 1155, lower your stop to SPX 1160. And if it declines still further to SPX 1151, take your profit. If not stopped out, take your profit on the close and go into the weekend flat.

And on that note, have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 6.55 points yesterday to close at 1187.76. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1188.50 last Thursday and covered the position at that same price yesterday. We are currently flat.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8500.08 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 728.83 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish - albeit barely.

The market was working its way nicely lower yesterday - down about 10 SPX points - when the Fed minutes report came out. The market’s initial response was additional weakness, but about a half-minute later, it reversed, and then gained steam as program traders and hedge funds got on the momentum bandwagon. From 2:00 to 3:00, the SPX gained some 18 points, then moved net sideways in the last hour. As CNBC’s Rick Santelli correctly pointed out (he’s one of the few on CNBC for whom I un-mute the TV), virtually no one read the report; it was mostly momentum. Another commentator disagreed with him, but I think Rick has it right.

The sharp and sudden spike yesterday is commonplace for bear market rallies. I look for the market to work its way lower again today and tomorrow, and have one last gasp to the upside on Friday, options expiration day, before starting a more serious decline than we’ve seen so far this month. But that’s merely my sense of things, not anything the models are “telling” me.

The daily model is again bearish today, unfazed by the spike yesterday. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1189.50 limit or at SPX 1184.50 stop, which ever comes first. Use a rather tight 5 point protective buy stop on the position, if taken. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 9.94 points Friday to close at 1181.20. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1188.50 on Thursday and have carried the position overnight since then and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8521.98 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 722.27 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish, albeit weakening.

I noticed in The Hirsch Organization’s 2005 Stock Trader’s Almanac that on the “Monday before April (options) expiration”, the Dow has been up 8 out of the past 9 nine years. I wanted to investigate a little further to see if that information might have predictive value for today. After researching further, I think that it does not. I noticed that 3 of those nine years (2004, 2001 and 1998) the Monday before April expiration came immediately after the Good Friday holiday, and we all know that markets trade differently just before and after holidays than on “regular” days. Furthermore, I noticed that in 5 other cases (2003, 2002, 2000, 1997 and 1996) the Monday before April expiration came after a losing week for the Dow (which this past week was not - the Dow was up 57 points). The ONLY time during the past 9 years when the Monday before April expiration came after a week which neither included Good Friday nor was it following a losing DJII week was in 1999, and in 1999, April was a sterling month with the Dow up a rocketing 1003 points for the month. So, I conclude that while 8 out of 9 pre-expiration Monday’s is a significant looking number, the specifics of today’s circumstances are significantly dissimilar enough from ANY of the past 9 years that I would not put any importance at all on that 8 of 9 plurality statistic.

The daily model is again bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Maintain the position but lower your stop to SPX 1193.50. If not stopped out, and if the SPX is down on the day as we approach the close, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow. If not stopped out, and if the SPX is up on the day as we approach the close, then cover your short on the close and go overnight flat.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 2.68 points yesterday to close at 1184.07. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8500.08 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 725.14 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.

On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “I expect the market to advance today, but to run out of steam late in the day,” and that’s precisely what happened. I also said, “An advance today would have VERY bearish connotations for tomorrow, and if the SPX does end higher on the day, the probability is very high that the daily model will be bearish tomorrow.” That also is the case, although the magnitude of the bearish reading for today is a bit weaker than I anticipated.

The daily mode is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1188.50 limit or at SPX 1183.50 stop, whichever comes first. If you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on your position. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

While the odds of a decline today are quite high, in the absence of significant negative news, a major meltdown does not seem imminent - yet. That will likely wait until later this month. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

A mixed session yesterday as the SPX advanced 3.20 points to close at 1176.12. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8500.08 cumulative SPX oints compared to a gain of 717.19 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.

On yesterday’s hotline I said, “Preliminary indications are that after some additional modest selling today, the market should be able to attempt a feeble rally…” Indeed, the SPX was in the red for most of the session, and it did mount a feeble rally in the last two hours of the day. Most of that rally, in my opinion though, was news related, a function of a downward reversal of oil prices and some conciliatory comments from the New York Attorney General regarding AIG. The broader market remained mixed, with up to down volume on the NYSE in a dead heat. The combined NYSE and NASDAQ advance/decline ratio was slightly negative, and six of the ten NYSE most active stocks declined. So, while the SPX did manage a modest gain in response to news, the overall market really had little conviction.

The directional component of the daily model is bullish today. However, once again, the risk component is high enough to nudge the overall model into neutral mode. Stand aside.

I do expect a rally up to the 1200 level or so within by the end of next week, but in the absence of a solid daily model buy signal, I’m inclined to let the advance pass us by and rather look to go short when it runs out of steam.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

THE APRIL MONTHLY ISSUE OF TOT IS ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL.

A bad day for the home team Friday as the SPX declined 7.67 points to close at 1172.92. TOT daily traders took a nasty scalping loss on 4 units, wiping out most of our gains from earlier in the week. The loss on Friday was a result of a barrage of negative news, starting with the ISM data, followed by rising oil, and not helped by the continuing AIG saga.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8500.08 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 713.99 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.

The directional component of the daily model is bearish today. However, the risk component is high enough to nudge the overall model into neutral mode. Stand aside.

Preliminary indications are that after some additional modest selling today, the market should be able to attempt a feeble rally over the next fortnight up to about the SPX 1200 level. From there, though, it’s likely to be a nasty ride into summer. Of course, with all eyes on interest rates and oil prices, the effect of news in those two areas will have a major impact on that preliminary forecast.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

Another good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 16.05 points yesterday to close at 1181.41. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short, took profits early in the session, simultaneously went 200% long, and then took profits on that position on the close.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8540.08 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 722.48 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain bearish.

The daily model is dead neutral today, and after two exciting and profitable days, we will stand aside today. My feeling is that, in the absence of important news, we will see some profit taking today, a resumption of the oversold bounce tomorrow, and more selling coming into the market next week. But that’s not a model-based forecast, just my “gut feeling.”

Enjoy the breather today, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 2.86 points yesterday to close at 1174.28. TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1174 and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8479.44 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 715.35 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain bearish.

While, on the face of it, the markets advanced yesterday, in reality, it was a distribution day. For example, the NASDAQ 100 tracking stock, perhaps the most actively traded stock in America, opened the day at 36.41 and then closed the day session at 36.34 and 36.30 in aftermarket trading. Closing below the day’s opening is clear-cut distribution, and a bearish sign. What’s more, after the decline the market had the previous two weeks, we’ve now had three days where the market’s tried to rally, but really couldn’t do much, with especial weakness in the last hour.

The daily model is bearish again today, and there’s a possibility we’ll see key support at 1163 broken. If so, I’d look to take at least partial profits, joining the specialists and market makers who likely will be buying what those selling on stop orders will be liquidating. Should we get down there, I will have an intraday update, but for now, TOT daily traders are advised to maintain a protective buy stop on your 400% short position at SPX 1183.55. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 1.11 point Thursday to close at 1171.42. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8480.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 712.49 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain bearish.

Despite the market’s being oversold, the daily model suggests that it will get more oversold before a decent rally can take hold. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at SPX 1174 limit or at SPX 1170 stop, whichever comes first. If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1183.55. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, March 23, 2005 AND, for reasons to be described momentarily, also Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 24, 2005

The SPX declined 12.07 points yesterday to close at SPX 1171.71. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short from SPX 1188 and covered the short yesterday at SPX 1185. We are currently flat.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8480.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 712.78 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain bearish.

On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “In the absence of unexpected and unknown negative news, the market does not seem ready to mount a march to the downside just yet.” The obviously operative words were “in the absence of unexpected and unknown negative news.” Indeed, prior to the Fed’s 2:15 announcement, the market was up consistently, albeit modestly, as was expected (and that upward expectation was the reason why we closed out our short position). But the Fed’s unexpectedly cautionary wording about inflation immediately spooked the market, and the SPX fell almost 20 points from its 2:15 level to close near its low for the day.

There is a natural feeling after an event like yesterday to say, “Oh sh–,” when if we had just kept our existing position, we would have had a much better profit. But that emotional response would be, well, sh–ty logic. I’m reminded of a personal situation from some 35 years ago. At the time, I had done a tremendous amount of fundamental research and had decided that Clinton Oil (no relation to our then-to-become and now past president), and had scraped together every penny I had in the world and bought 300 shares at $3 a share. For almost three years, the stock lingered and lingered, wavering very little from that $3 price. Then, the stock picked up support, and over a period of several weeks, advanced to $9 a share. Well, back to the drawing board I went, did all my fundamental analysis again, and came to the conclusion that the stock was quite fairly valued. I sold, gleefully. A month later, it was $32 a share. I agonized over my decision, miserable at the incremental gain I did not make, rather than the tripling of value that I did achieve. But then I asked myself, “Based on the knowledge that I had at the time I made the decision, based on my rationale for being in the position, did I make the logical decision to sell at $9?” And no matter how many times I asked myself the question, the answer came back the same: “Yes.” Same with yesterday’s situation. Had Cousin Alan been more sanguine about inflation than the market had anticipated, rather than more cautionary, the SPX would have vaulted to 1200 instead of falling to 1170. There’s just virtually no doubt about it. So we took a small gain instead of a big one, and it’s emotionally annoying - but I have no doubt that yesterday’s recommendation was the right one to make. (Irrelevant epilogue: A few years after Clinton Oil hit $32, the stock was bankrupt and worthless - a GREAT sale at $9!)

Anyway, to the present: The directional component of the daily model is ever so slightly bullish today with the odds favoring a small gain, perhaps after an initial move slightly lower. However, in the aftermath of yesterday’s news related volatility, the risk component of the model is very high, moving the overall model reading into neutral territory. We will therefore stand aside, keeping our capital safely intact.

Regarding Thursday, which is the last trading day of the week, the market being closed on Good Friday, I will be heading to the airport at just about the time when I would be downloading the data I need for Thursday’s analysis. So, a Thursday hotline is not possible. And since the model advises us to stand aside today, the obvious conclusion is that we will stand aside on Thursday as well.

Assuming EVA Airlines and United Express get me back to San Diego in one piece, the next hotline will be recorded six hours before the start of Monday’s NYSE session.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again early Monday morning. Enjoy the extended weekend.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 5.87 points yesterday to close at SPX

1183.78. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short

from SPX 1188, and we have carried the position overnight and

into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily

trader recommendations have gained 8485.44 cumulative SPX

points compared to a gain of 724.85 points in the index itself

over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains

bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several

years.

Both the long and short term remain bearish.

In the absence of unexpected and unknown negative news, the

market does not seem ready to mount a march to the downside

just yet. Preliminarily, next week seems like a better bet for

that. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short,

and the daily model is neutral today. However, my “gut feel”

(intuition?, experience?) is that the market “wants” to try to go

higher. I don’t think it can advance more than a percent or a

percent and a half at most, but I see no reason to risk hanging

on to a position that I’m not comfortable with when the daily

model is not advising me to do so. Therefore, my

recommendation is that you maintain your position, but lower

the protective buy stop to an extremely tight SPX 1185. If the

market declines to SPX 1175 before SPX 1185 is reached, lower

your stop to SPX 1180. And for each additional 5 point decline,

lower your stop by an equivalent 5 points. If not stopped out,

carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

I think that 2005 is going to be a far nastier year for the market

than the majority of analysts are predicting, but I don’t see an

immediate collapse right now.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you

again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment

Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal

use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly

Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and

distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced

without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 0.56 points Friday to close at SPX 1189.65,

after having been down more than that during most of the day.

TOT daily traders were trying to short into strength, but

strength was not to be found. Instead, we went 400% short at

SPX 1188 on a sell stop, and we have carried the position over

the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily

trader recommendations have gained 8461.96 cumulative SPX

points compared to a gain of 730.72 points in the index itself

over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains

bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several

years.

Both the long and short term remain bearish.

Both the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100 indices were down

by about ?% on Friday, continuing to act worse than the Dow

30 - and that’s definitely bearish. Indeed, on the broad

NASDAQ market, declining volume lead advancing volume by

almost two to one, and more stocks hit new 52 week lows there

than hit 52 week highs. Volume was enormous, but because of

witching and S&P realignments, I wouldn’t put much importance

on that.

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short. Much

to my surprise, the daily model is neutral today, but with an

unusual configuration. There is a modest probability that the

market will advance today! However, if there is a move of any

MAGNITUDE, there is an overwhelming probability that that

move will be to the downside. Furthermore, if the SPX

advances today, relieving some of the oversold condition to the

market, it is almost a certainty that the daily model will be

bearish tomorrow. In addition, the short term model is very

solidly bearish. In sum then, even though the daily model is

neutral, I think the risk of staying short is relatively small,

especially when compared to the risk of possibly missing a big

downside move if any negative news occurs. Therefore, my

recommendation is that you maintain your position and the

protective buy stop at SPX 1203. If not stopped out, carry the

position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you

again approximately six hours prior to Tuesday’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment

Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal

use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly

Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and

distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced

without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 9.68 points yesterday to close at SPX

1188.07. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the

session, as the daily model correctly kept us out, overriding the

St. Patrick’s Day indicator.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily

trader recommendations have gained 8468.56 cumulative SPX

points compared to a gain of 729.14 points in the index itself

over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains

bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several

years.

The long term model remains neutral. However, there is an

overwhelming probability that it will turn bearish on tonight’s

close unless the market is able to put in an (unexpected)

monster rally today. The short term model remains bearish.

What probably would have been a mildly negative session

yesterday became a one percent downer because of rising oil

prices and bad news from General Motors. While I’m pleased

that the daily model correctly kept us on the sidelines, I’m

disappointed that the market has fallen to close to what some

technicians would consider “support”, as I was looking forward

to going short at higher levels. The daily model is neutral today,

at current prices, as the market is oversold, somewhat

counterbalancing the bearishness of most component indicators.

However, barring a major market advance today, the daily

model will be bearish tomorrow, with the probability high of

either a 400% or 500% bearish reading. Therefore, I’m going to

“jump the gun” just a little (1/2 sized position) and only if we

get strength into upside resistance. TOT daily traders are

advised to go 200% short at SPX 1197. If you go short, use a

protective buy stop at SPX 1212. If not stopped out, carry the

position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you

again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment

Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal

use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly

Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and

distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced

without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 9.08 points yesterday to close at SPX

1197.75. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the

session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily

trader recommendations have gained 8468.56 cumulative SPX

points compared to a gain of 738.82 points in the index itself

over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains

bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several

years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model

remains bearish. Furthermore, both models are deteriorating.

Based on today’s being the day prior to St. Patrick’s Day, the

odds certainly favor an advance today. However, when I went

on line at 3:00 a.m. local time in Thailand (3:00 p.m. New York

time) yesterday, I could find no encouragement in today’s being

any better than an average market day, and so I did not issue

any special intraday report. Worse yet, as I’ve reviewed and

analyzed data over the past two hours (that’s about what it

usually takes, by the way, to cross check and verify signals), I

can report to you that WITHOUT the effect of the St. Patrick’s

Day indicator, the daily model would be VERY bearish today!

However, the St. Patrick’s Day indicator is not to be taken

lightly, as its predictive record is strong, and it is worthy of (and

receives) appropriate weighting in the daily model. With its

inclusion, the daily model for today is only minimally bearish, at a

level which would call for a 100% short position. However, with

only such a minimally bearish reading, I would not want to go

against the St. Patrick’s Day indicator, and therefore, as boring

as it may be, I recommend standing aside again today.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you

again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment

Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal

use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly

Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and

distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced

without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 6.75 points yesterday to close at SPX

1206.83. The market was mostly soft throughout the day, and

the advance was purely a response to the superb Genentech

news. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily

trader recommendations have gained 8468.56 cumulative SPX

points compared to a gain of 747.90 points in the index itself

over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains

bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several

years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model

remains bearish.

On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “The market is very much caught

in limbo right now, and could just as easily advance as decline

today.” After two hours of pouring over data right now, that is

definitely still the case. The daily model is solidly neutral, and

the market has absolutely no clear cut internal direction. We

will remain on the sidelines today.

About a decade ago, I did original research on the St. Patrick’s

Day “holiday”, which was published in TOT. For a summary of

that research, please see a summary in the 2005 Stock Trader’s

Almanac. Based on tomorrow’s being the day prior to St.

Patrick’s Day, the odds certainly favor an advance tomorrow.

However, some of the underlying indicators of the daily model

are so weak that I’m reluctant to automatically go long on the

close today. I will try hard to locate a computer at 3:00 a.m.

local time in Thailand (3:00 p.m. New York time), and if I can,

and if I can also get a better handle on tomorrow’s most likely

daily model direction, then I’ll issue an intraday update before

the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you

again in 24 hours - or sooner if the circumstances just described

are extant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment

Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal

use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly

Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and

distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced

without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 2.24 points yesterday to close at SPX 1209.25, but the advance/decline ratio on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, as well as the Russell 2000 and most other broad indices were down on the day. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1204 and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8472.06 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 750.32 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.

The bond auction went better than expected, and that turned a decent sized decline into the aforementioned small advance. As they say in Spanish, “shucks!”

The daily model is neutral today, and the market has neither bullish nor bearish internal direction, but will probably simply drift in the direction of the news. If we were not already “in”, I’d recommend staying out. Under the circumstances, since we are 200% short, I’d recommend holding the position, but lowering the stop dramatically to a very tight SPX 1211. On the downside, if we get to SPX 1203, cover the position there. If still short as of the close, cover the short on the close and go into the weekend flat.

And with that in mind, have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 12.42 points yesterday to close at SPX 1207.01. “Officially,” TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session, as I had recommended going “300% short at SPX 1221.45,” and that SPX level was never reached in the day session. However, I do know that several TOT subscribers did go short in the night session when the March S&P futures got as high as 1224. But, as I said, “officially,” TOT daily traders were on the sidelines yesterday.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8482.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 748.08 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.

On Tuesday’s hotline I said, “My bond model has turned sharply negative, indicating the probability that long term interest rates will rise. This will likely put a damper on further market advances.” That trend began Tuesday, and it accelerated Wednesday, absolutely putting a damper on stocks.

On yesterday’s hotline, I had also said that the downside yesterday was “somewhat limited… in the absence of negative news,” and the reason for the more significant decline yesterday was the 3% decline in the bond market, a huge move for US Treasury securities.

The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, but the risk component of the model is very high. That’s mainly a function of the past two days’ spike in interest rates, and if those rates were to retrace today, it would be rather bullish for stocks. Since my bond model is not time-oriented (such as the daily model for stocks is) but is rather direction oriented (i.e., it gives a signal, and that signal stays in effect until it gives another signal), I have no opinion as to what the bond market will do today - and therefore I have no opinion as to what impact the high risk component of the model will have.

Ignoring the risk component of the model - WHICH I DO NOT WANT TO DO COMPLETELY - the daily model would be calling for a 400% short position. However, the risk component of the model is so high that it puts the overall model into a cautious neutral position. I would have no fault with any subscriber who wanted to “play it straight” and stay on the sidelines. However, I’m going to somewhat override the risk component and suggest a 200% short position, half of what the pure directional component signal would call for. (Please note that this decision will be proved right or wrong based on news - and nothing else - and I have no idea what the news today will be.)

With the previous thoughts in mind, TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1214 limit or at SPX 1204 stop, whichever comes first. If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1221. That’s a modest stop level if you go short at SPX 1214, but a rather steep stop if you go short at SPX 1204. Obviously, subscribers may adjust that stop for their own risk propensity, but I’m comfortable with it, especially since I’ve already cut the recommended position size in half from what the directional component would suggest.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX declined 5.88 points yesterday to close at SPX 1219.43. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8482.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 760.50 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.

On yesterday’s hotline I said, “My bond model has turned sharply negative, indicating the probability that long term interest rates will rise. This will likely put a damper on further market advances.” And while I didn’t necessarily expect an immediate response, the bond market did fall sharply yesterday, and it did put a damper on stocks.

The daily model is bearish today, but the downside is somewhat limited (for today, as a single day), in the absence of negative news. So we will try to short into resistance if the market accommodates us with a modest rally, but we will not short into weakness.

TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1221.45. If you go short, use a 7 point protective stop on the position. If the SPX declines by 7 points after going short, then reduce your stop to an SPX 1221.45 breakeven. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Thursday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The SPX advanced 3.19 points yesterday to close at SPX 1225.31. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8482.56 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 766.38 points in the index itself over the same period.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.

On one hand, my suggestion yesterday that the Dow would decline was correct. On the other hand, my comment that NASDAQ would do worse was very much incorrect, as the tech index advanced smartly. The broad based NYSE Index and the Russell 2000 did decline. Amazingly, even though the NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ COMP were up sharply, the advance/decline ratio on NASDAQ was negative on the day - there were actually more declining stocks there than advancers! A very strange situation indeed.

My bond model has turned sharply negative, indicating the probability that long term interest rates will rise. This will likely put a damper on further market advances. Furthermore, the NASDAQ 100 is up against major resistance here, and I’d be astonished if that index didn’t sell off from current levels. That having been said, the momentum from this rally is so strong that it is sufficient to balance the more negative indicators, leaving the overall SPX-based daily model in neutral mode. We will remain on the sidelines awaiting a clearer signal.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours - or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.