Turov on Timing

After being in positive territory most of the day, the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day down 3.75 points yesterday to close at 1254.42.  TOT daily traders were long for the session and liquidated the position on the close.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8573.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 795.49 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  However, these models are weakening and could turn negative at any time.

On yesterday’s message, I said, “the risk component of the model is likely to be extraordinarily high Friday,” and that is indeed the case.  That moves the overall model into a neutral mode.  We will spend the last day of the year on the sidelines.

I envision 2006 becoming a solidly bearish year, with the SPX declining by at least 20%.  However, the models do not yet indicate that it is time to get exceedingly negative; that time will come in due course.

Have a safe and enjoyable weekend, and a healthy and prosperous New Year.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 2006!

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 1.63 points yesterday to close at 1258.17.  TOT daily traders went 200% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8584.62 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 799.24 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  However, these models are weakening and could turn negative at any time.

The daily model is slightly more bullish today than it was yesterday.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long.  Go an additional 100% long at SPX 1258.25 stop.  Use a protective sell stop at SPX 1250 on both the old and new positions.  If not stopped out prior to the close, liquidate your position on the close and go overnight flat as the risk component of the model is likely to be extraordinarily high Friday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or  sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 12.12 points yesterday to close at 1256.54.  TOT daily traders got scalped for 10 points on two units.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8580.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 797.61 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  However, these models are weakening and could turn negative at any time, despite a somewhat improving outlook for the very short term.

The excuse given by most of the news services for yesterday’s decline – an inverted yield curve – makes no sense unless one assumes that the big money simply treated the inversion as an automatic program trade decision.  Why?  Because whether the 10 year bond is 5 basis points below the 2 year bond or 5 basis points above will have absolutely no impact whatsoever on whether the economy goes into recession or not.  However, since the studies showing that inverted yield curves usually lead to recessions are well known to professional traders, an AUTOMATIC non-thinking response when that happened is more likely the cause of yesterday’s decline than the actual significance of a few basis points move.  And automatic moves are generally reversed fairly quickly.

Consistent with that, the daily model is again moderately bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market.  As always, we will use the opening price as reported by www.bigcharts.com as our benchmark price.  Use a 10 point protective stop once you go long.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or  sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced a negligible 0.54 point Friday to close at 1268.66.  On Friday’s message I had said, “The daily model is marginally bullish, but I see no compelling reason to risk capital,” and that was a pretty good call as we remained on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8600.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 809.73 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  However, these models are weakening and could turn negative at any time, despite a somewhat improving outlook for the very short term.

The daily model is moderately bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1271.55 stop or at SPX 1267 limit, whichever comes first.  If you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Despite the overwhelmingly common belief that the stock market will advance this week, and despite my normal tendency to go against overwhelmingly common beliefs, I do think the market will do well, at least during the early part of the week.  I also believe we are extremely close to the very end of this cyclical bull market, and that 2006 will be a very nasty year – very nasty.  But this is still 2005.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or  sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 5.33 points yesterday to close at 1268.12.  TOT daily traders took a 17.33 point trading profit on Wednesday but were on the sidelines yesterday.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8600.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 809.19 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The market is less than 1/2 percent from its yearly high, the SPX advanced yesterday, and yet there were less than 100 new 52 week highs on the NYSE and even less on NASDAQ.  The three most active NYSE issues all declined, and the biggest gainer among the ten most active was up a measly 36 cents.  Not inspiring, to say the least.

Seasonality is a powerful force, and I think the market is likely to attempt a new high before year’s end – but not this week (in the absence of unexpected favorable news).  For today, expect a fractional gain, barring news developments, with new individual stock highs continuing to be elusive.

The daily model is marginally bullish, but I see no compelling reason to risk capital when any fireworks will likely be delayed until next week.

Have a very Merry Christmas, a Happy Chanukah, and a Joyous Holiday. 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 3.17 points yesterday to close at 1262.79.  TOT daily traders went 300% short on Monday at SPX 1270 and took profits yesterday at an average price of SPX 1264.2233.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8600.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 803.86 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

We have an interesting situation today.  The directional component of the daily model is bullish today, but the risk component is quite high, pushing the overall model into neutral.  We will therefore “officially” stand aside.  However, I’ve recently completed a lengthy research project on the Dow Industrials and the NASDAQ 100, and if I were to run the daily model on the Dow Industrials, the directional component would still be bullish, but the risk component of the model would not be in the excessive risk category!  So, the “unofficial” strategy would be to buy either Dow stocks, Dow futures, or a Dow proxy security (fund or Diamonds, for example) rather than an SPX proxy. 

Returning to commentary about the SPX, over the past 77 years, the penultimate day prior to the market’s Christmas closing (or a weekend including Christmas for those years long ago when the market did not close on a weekday when Christmas fell on the weekend), the SPX has been up 40 times and down 37 times, with the average return for the day being a slight decline.  But it has advanced in each of the past three years.

On the other hand, over the past 77 years, the ultimate day prior to the market’s Christmas closing (or a weekend including Christmas for those years long ago when the market did not close on a weekday when Christmas fell on the weekend), the SPX has been up 57 times and down 20 times, with the average return for the day being about 3/10 of 1% — a significant average gain.  But it has advanced in only one of the past three years!  Who said figuring out the market was easy?  (besides CNBC, of course!).

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

For those in the north, it’s the first day of Winter.  For those in southern California…  Well, it’s southern California.
    
The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 0.30 point yesterday to close at 1259.62.  TOT daily traders went 300% short on Monday at SPX 1270 and have held the position overnight again and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8614.33 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 800.69 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  The only thing preventing the short term model from turning bearish is our time proximity to Christmas and New Years.

I find it of interesting note that the seven most active NYSE stocks yesterday were all down.  I also find it interesting that, with the SPX only 1% below its 52 week high, there were more new lows on both the NYSE and NASDAQ than new highs. 

The daily model is neutral today, and the impending Christmas holiday makes it unlikely we’ll get any serious decline right now.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short.  Cover one unit of the three unit position at the market on the opening, lower your stop on the second unit to SPX 1266, and leave the stop on the third unit unchanged at SPX 1270.  If still short on the close AND if the SPX is closing up on the day, then close out the remainder of the position on the close and go overnight flat.  If still short on the close AND if the SPX is closing down on the day, then carry your position overnight and into Thursday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

A very good day, indeed, for the home team as the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 7.40 points yesterday to close at 1259.92.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1270 and have held the position overnight and into today

The comparison figures on SPX and TOT relative performance was incorrect on yesterday’s hotline message.  I haven’t corrected it yet, but it will be corrected on tomorrow’s message.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  The ONLY thing preventing the short term model from turning bearish is our time proximity to Christmas and New Years.

The daily model is again bearish today, although the morning economic news adds uncertainty to the day’s call.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short.  Lower your stop to a breakeven SPX 1270.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Wednesday.

There is a possibility that we’ve already seen the highs for the year and that the Santa Claus rally will not occur this year.  While the week before Christmas is traditionally strong, the market does not always advance during that time.  Indeed, for the five trading days prior to Christmas over the past decade, the Dow Industrials declined in three of those ten years – 1995, 1997, and 2002.

Looking at the last ten days of December, the eighth to last day (which today is) has been particularly weak with there having been more declining sessions than advancing ones over the past 75 years.  The strongest days, historically, have been the penultimate and antepenultimate days of the month; those days will fall on December 28 and 29 this year.  All this, of course, is just average historical precedent, and many other factors will come into play when evaluating the daily model on the remaining days of 2005. 

The Dow is up only ½% for the year to date, the SPX just under 4%, and the NASDAQ Composite just over 2%. 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 3.62 points Friday to close at 1267.32.  That’s only 1½ points above where it closed on Thanksgiving Eve.  Momentum is clearly waning.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8584.90 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 793.29 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.  The ONLY thing preventing the short term model from turning bearish is our time proximity to Christmas and New Years.

The daily model is bearish today, and the Pfizer news should give the market an early morning pop for us to short into strength.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1270.  If SPX 1270 is not reached by 9:40 a.m., Eastern time, then go 300% short at the market.  We will use Trade Station’s 9:40 a.m. “close” as our benchmark number, if we short at 9:40, and I’ll report that number on Tuesday’s message.  After going short, use a protective buy stop on the three units (that comprise 300%) on a scale up at SPX 1278, SPX 1280, and SPX 1282.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Tuesday.

There is a possibility that we’ve already seen the highs for the year and that the Santa Claus rally will not occur this year.  I’ll have some additional thoughts on that tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 5.31 points to close at 1272.74.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8583.19 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 813.81 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.

The market continues to advance primarily on momentum, and our momentum indicators remain VERY strong.  And as has been the case for awhile, our oscillator indicators look awful.  Of course, oscillator indicators can stay overbought for quite a while if momentum is strong enough.  The problem with going long here is that, overall, the daily model is just SO neutral that ANY position cannot be justified.  (Interestingly enough, I’m getting about three emails from subscribers arguing the bearish case for every one arguing the bullish case right now!  But I would not consider that a contrary indicator because it’s too small a statistical sample and because my subscribers are far from the typical wrong-way investor.)  In any event, the daily model is clearly saying that there simply is no clear cut picture right now!

Furthermore, with tomorrow being options and futures expiration, as I’ve explained often in these messages, there is a higher bar necessary for the generation of a signal.  Taking that factor into consideration, there are no circumstances short of about a 25+ point DECLINE in the SPX today (which is almost unimaginable) that would cause the daily model to be anything other than neutral tomorrow.  Therefore, as boring as this continues to be, we will remain on the sidelines for the time being and wait for a better opportunity next week.  As there is no need to repeat the obvious tomorrow, the next TOT will be six hours before the opening on Monday, and there will be no TOT daily report Friday (unless the SPX declines by that almost unimaginable 25 points or more today).

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) did nothing until the Fed decision was announced and then advanced 7 points yesterday to close at 1267.43.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8583.19 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 808.50 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.

Although the market liked the Fed announcement and advanced in response to it, the market was unable to close higher than where it was just a few moments after the announcement was made.  The NYSE advance/decline ratio was only barely positive, and the NASDAQ advance/decline ratio was actually negative!  The Russell 2000 was down on the day.  Momentum indicators remain VERY strong and oscillator indicators look awful.  There’s just no clear cut picture right now.

Accordingly, the daily model is neutral today, and as boring as this recommendation might be, continue to stand aside for the time being and wait for a better opportunity.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced a negligible 1.06 point yesterday to close at 1260.43.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8583.19 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 801.50 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral.

On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “The daily model is ever so slightly bullish today, but not by a margin significant enough to warrant risking capital,” and that about summed it up as the market advanced just a tad.  For today, and perhaps tomorrow as well, the daily model is probably irrelevant.  The Fed is meeting today, the market will probably do little in advance of the meeting, gyrate madly after the 2:15 results are announced, and then have a wild time of it, perhaps lasting into Wednesday, depending on whether and to what extent there are surprises today.  I doubt even the bed-mates of the Fed members know how they’re going to vote today or what policy statement they will issue, and certainly all the prognosticators out there don’t know either.

The just-acknowledged irrelevant-for-today daily model - which is and will always be “news-neutral”  (for reasons described in the past, several times, in TOT) is ever so slightly bearish today, but, as I said, it doesn’t matter, considering the importance of the Fed meeting.  Stand aside for the time being and wait for a better opportunity.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 3.53 points Friday to close at 1259.37.  TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short and took a small profit on the position early in the session and then remained on the sidelines for the balance of the day.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8583.19 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 800.44 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The daily model is ever so slightly bullish today, not by a margin significant enough to warrant risking capital.  Oil and interest rates will obviously play a major part of determining the week’s direction, and with all three of our model neutral or virtually neutral, the market will swing to the vicissitudes of the news.  Stand aside for the time being and wait for a better opportunity.

The most bullish scenario that could occur would be for the market to tread water - or better yet, decline modestly - over the next week and a half, in the process losing some of its currently overbought condition.  That could then set the stage for the traditional Santa Claus rally.  My main concern, though, about such a scenario, is that so many people are expecting it, and Wall Street rarely accommodates the masses.  In any event, for today, stand aside.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.53 point yesterday to close at 1255.84.  It is now about 10 points below where it closed on Thanksgiving Eve.  TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short and have carried the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8584.90 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 796.91 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The daily model is neutral today, as the risk of staying short has increased significantly.    TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short.  Lower your stop to a very tight SPX 1257.55.  On the downside, if the SPX declines to 1246.55, take your profit.  If still short on the close, carry the position over the weekend and into Monday. 

All other things being equal (which, of course, they never are), the odds favor next week starting with some additional weakness, followed by some modest strength into expiration Friday.  But a lot will depend on oil prices.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.53 point yesterday to close at 1255.84.  It is now about 10 points below where it closed on Thanksgiving Eve.  TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short and have carried the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8584.90 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 796.91 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The daily model is neutral today, as the risk of staying short has increased significantly.    TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short.  Lower your stop to a very tight SPX 1257.55.  On the downside, if the SPX declines to 1246.55, take your profit.  If still short on the close, carry the position over the weekend and into Monday. 

All other things being equal (which, of course, they never are), the odds favor next week starting with some additional weakness, followed by some modest strength into expiration Friday.  But a lot will depend on oil prices.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 6.33 points yesterday to close at 1257.37.  TOT daily traders came into the session 100% short and have carried the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8583.37 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 798.44 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The daily model is again modestly bearish today, and I see no reason to cover our short prematurely.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short.  Lower your stop to SPX 1269.55.  On the downside, if the SPX declines to 1246.55, take your profit.  If still short on the close, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.  However, please note that preliminary evidence shows that risk will be higher on Friday than on today, and we will therefore either significantly tighten our stop or simply close out our position tomorrow, depending on Friday’s daily model reading.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 3.12 points yesterday to close at 1260.76.  TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short, were stopped out on half the position, and have carried the remaining position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8577.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 804.77 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The market opened strongly on a surprisingly bullish productivity report, made a new 52 week high intraday, in response to that report, but then fell to the lows of the day late in the session.  The bulls can’t be encouraged by yesterday’s performance, even though the market ended in plus territory.

The daily model is modestly bearish today, and I would expect some additional selling.   TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short.  Maintain your stop at SPX 1273.  On the downside, if the SPX declines to 1246.55 after 10:00 a.m., cover your position.  If the SPX, unexpectedly declines to 1246.55 before 10.00 a.m., I’ll have an intraday update shortly thereafter.  If still short on the close, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 2.99 points yesterday to close at 1262.09.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for Monday’s session but went 200% short on the close and have carried that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8585.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 803.16 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

The daily model, as expected, is bearish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  Use a fairly tight stop at SPX 1268.50 on half the position and a slightly less tight stop at SPX 1273 on the other half.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

There is no evidence at present of any significant forthcoming decline.  A pullback over the next week of between 10 to 15 SPX points is probably all that can be expected – in the absence of surprising news, of course.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

THE DECEMBER MONTHLY ISSUE OF TUROV ON TIMING IS ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced a miniscule 0.41 point Friday to close at 1265.08.  That still leaves the SPX just shy of where it was the eve of Thanksgiving.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for Friday’s session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8585.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 806.15 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

Despite the slight gain in the SPX on Friday, all five of the NYSE most active stocks declined, both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Utilities declined, and the NYSE advance/decline volume ratio was negative.  Yet the advance/decline volume ratio on NASDAQ was almost 2:1 positive, led by a strong semiconductor segment.  Overall, a very mixed session.  The longer the market is able to move sideways, rather than decline, following November’s big advance, the more bullish the potential outlook gets for the balance of December.  The biggest negative is that just about everybody is bullish, and sentiment readings are quite consistent with major top areas – although we could certainly advance further before the ultimate top is reached.

The daily model is again neutral today and we will stand aside.  However, it is almost a certainty that if the SPX declines today, the daily model will be bearish on Tuesday.  So…  If the SPX is negative on the close, TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short on the close and carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 15.19 points yesterday to close at 1264.67.  That brings the SPX to just shy of where it was the eve of Thanksgiving.  So much for this year’s post-Thanksgiving, early December rally.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8585.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 805.74 points in the index itself over the same period. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.

Both the long and short term models remain neutral. 

I’m delighted that, as I reported on yesterday’s hotline, the daily model was neutral yesterday.  Without November 28’s changes to the daily model, it would have been bearish.  Although one snowflake does not make a White Christmas, I am definitely encouraged. 

The daily model is again neutral today and we will stand aside.  However, it is almost a certainty that if the SPX declines today, the daily model – both old and new versions of it! – will be bearish on Monday.  So…  If the SPX is negative on the close, TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short on the close and carry the position over the weekend and into Monday.

And with that in mind, have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.