Turov on Timing

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 3, 2007.

The SPX advanced 6.39 points yesterday to close at 1465.81.  TOT daily traders took a 1% loss on 2 units which reversed a little less than half of the profit we booked earlier in the week.  We are currently flat.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9403.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1013.27 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.28 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.

The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, but the risk component is so high that it defaults the overall model into neutral.  So we will stand aside today and start the weekend early.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 72 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 2, 2007.

The SPX advanced 10.54 points yesterday to close at 1465.81.  However, the advance/decline ratio was negative on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, and the 10 most active NYSE issues were evenly balanced with five up and five down.  All of the gain yesterday was a function of buying in the big blue chips: Nine of the Dow 30 were up by a full point or more.  After booking a big profit on Tuesday, TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9433.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1006.88 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.37 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.

On yesterday’s hotline I said, “ My best educated guess is that the market will be soft in the morning and then put in a good rally in the afternoon.”  Bingo!!  But risk was “far too high to venture in, on either side of the market right now,” and so we stayed on the sidelines awaiting a better trading opportunity. 

The daily model is bearish today, but risk is too high to take a large position.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1478 limit or at SPX 1461 stop, whichever (if either) comes first.  If you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on your position.  If the position goes 10 points in your favor, lower your stop to a breakeven.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 1, 2007.

Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 18.64 points yesterday to close at 1455.27.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1462 on Monday and took profits at SPX 1484 yesterday.  For the month of July, the SPX declined by 48.08 points while TOT daily traders advanced by 257.58 points.  It was TOT’s best month ever.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9433.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 996.34 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.47 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The failure of the rally yesterday has turned the intermediate term model bearish again after only a brief stint in bullish territory.  REPEATING:  THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL HAS DOWNTICKED TO BEARISH.

The daily model is neutral today.  My best educated guess is that the market will be soft in the morning and then put in a good rally in the afternoon.  But risk is far too high to venture in, on either side of the market right now.  Await a better trading opportunity.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 9:43a.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Tuesday, July 31, 2007.

TOT daily traders came into today’s session 300% long from SPX 1462.  The SPX is currently 1486.  Take your profit at 1488 limit or at SPX 1484 stop, whichever comes first.  In the very unlikely event that neither level is reached, then carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Wednesday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, July 31, 2007.

The SPX advanced 14.96 points yesterday to close at 1473.91.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1462 and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9402.79 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1014.98 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.26 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bullish.  As I said yesterday, “I do not expect the July highs to be exceeded or for the bull market to continue, but a 4% TO 5% “correction” to what I believe is a nascent bear market is a probability.”  Yesterday’s gain was about 1%.

The daily model is bullish again  today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long.  Raise your stop to an SPX 1462 breakeven.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, July 30, 2007.

The SPX declined a huge 23.71 points Friday to close at 1458.95.  TOT daily traders had a breakeven on an afternoon scalp attempt.  For the week as a whole, the SPX was down 75.15 points while TOT daily traders were up 7.29 points.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9367.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1000.02 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.37 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model has upticked from bearish to bullish.  Repeating, THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL HAS UPTICKED FROM BEARISH TO BULLISH.  I do not expect the July highs to be exceeded or for the bull market to continue, but a 4% TO 5% “correction” to what I believe is a nascent bear market is a probability.

During the runoff Friday afternoon (the period between 4:00 and 4:15 when the NYSE has closed but futures, options and some ETFs continue to trade), S&P futures declined about 8 points or a little more than ½%.  Since the S&P futures were at about fair value at 4:00, the runoff selloff means that even if the S&P futures rally 8 points overnight (as I write this at 11:00 p.m. Eastern time, they are currently up about 3), it would imply merely a flat opening on the NYSE today.  Any lesser rally in the futures would imply a down opening.  Obviously, were the futures to reverse overnight and move lower, that could make for a really nasty opening.

Despite the potential for a soft opening, the daily model is bullish today – along with the aforementioned intermediate term model – and I expect the market to close higher.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long on a buy stop at the first 3 point rally from the even-level Monday daily low:  For example if the SPX opens at 1456.50, that would make the lowest even-level price 1457, and the buy stop would be 3 points higher at 1460.  If the SPX then declines to 1456 prior to advancing to 1460, then the buy stop should be lowered to SPX 1459.  If the SPX then declines to 1455 prior to advancing to 1459, then the buy stop should be lowered to SPX 1458, etc.  If and when you go long, use a protective sell stop 8 points below your buy level.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Tuesday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 2:45 p.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 27, 2007.

The SPX is currently about 1479, after having dipped as low as SPX 1469.24 during the one-minute period ending at 2:30.  As per my intraday message a half hour ago, TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1470 limit.  Raise your stop to an SPX 1470 break-even for the balance of the session.  If not stopped out, carry the position over the weekend and into Monday.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 2:15 p.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 27, 2007.

The SPX is currently about 1475, and the weight of the evidence implies that the worst of the selling is probably over for now.  Furthermore, the odds favor a strong opening on Monday, barring surprising weekend news.

TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1477 stop or at SPX 1470 limit, whichever comes first.  If you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop on the position.  If not stopped out, carry the position over the weekend and into Monday.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, July 27, 2007.

A very good day, indeed, for TOT daily traders, as the SPX declined a huge 35.43 points yesterday to close at 1482.66, and the TOT daily model correctly kept us out of the morass with a neutral (avoid risk) reading.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9367.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1023.73 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.15 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.  There is a decent possibility that the bull market has ended with this month’s highs. 

When markets get as emotional as this one has suddenly gotten, virtually anything can happen, and the news will determine what does actually happen – far more than usual.  This morning’s GDP report will likely weigh in on the day’s trading.  Bullishly, the SPX 1480-1484 area has held firm, on a closing basis.  Bearishly…, well, where would one begin?

Clearly, the market is deeply oversold.  However, market collapses, such as 1987, often begin with deeply oversold market conditions.  Such collapses are rare, but they do occur – and the problems facing the housing market (as I outlined in DETAIL two years ago) are potentially apocalyptic.

The daily model is irrelevant today.  Yes; that’s right.  Irrelevant, because at truly extreme emotional levels, statistical norms don’t exist, and outliers become commonplace.  For the time being, I recommend standing aside and seeing how the market responds to the morning news AND seeing how it responds to the response to the response!  I’ll email you again later today.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, July 26, 2007.

The SPX advanced 7.05 points yesterday to close at 1518.09.  The TOT daily model correctly forecast an advancing session, but unfortunately TOT daily traders were stopped out on their trade with a breakeven as the market swooned before advancing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9367.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1059.16 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.84 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.  There is a decent possibility that the bull market has ended with this month’s highs. 

The daily model is neutral today, as bullish and bearish forces are pretty much in balance.  Stand aside and await a better opportunity.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, July 25, 2007.

The SPX declined 30.53 points yesterday to close at 1511.04, wiping out virtually all of July’s prior advance.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  Whew!

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9367.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1052.11 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.90 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish.  There is a decent possibility that the bull market has ended with this month’s highs. 

Despite yesterday’s mini-panic, the daily model is bullish today, as the market is deeply oversold from a very short term perspective.  We very well MAY be on the verge of a meltdown – but VERY probably NOT TODAY.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 1514 stop or at SPX 1504 limit, whichever comes first.  If you go long, use a very tight 5 point protective stop on half the position and a much looser 10 point protective stop on the other half.  If the market advances enough to give you a 20 point CUMULATIVE gain on the total position, raise your stop to a breakeven.  If still long on the close, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, July 24, 2007.

The SPX advanced 7.49 points yesterday to close at 1541.57, reversing a little less than 40% of Friday’s decline.  Yet the advance/decline ratio on both the NYSE and NASDAQ were both negative.  TOT daily traders went 300% short near the high of the day at SPX 1544 and took profits on the position by covering it on the close.  We are currently flat.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9367.06 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1082.64 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.65 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish, and, as I’ve been saying, the market is likely to top out this month – if it hasn’t already done so. 

The daily model is bullish today, and if the market can gather some steam, it could bring in a lot of short covering.  But it’s a big “if.”  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at SPX 1543 stop, and an additional 100% long at SPX 1546 stop.  If you go long, use a 7 point protective stop on each position, calculated separately.  If still long on the close, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 11:30 a.m. intraday update of Turov on Timing for Monday, July 23, 2007.

On today’s regular message, I said, “The most likely probability today is for the market to rally in the early going and then sell off again as the rally fails.  I will be looking for the tipping point at which to go short, and if and when I find it, I will advise you in an intraday update…”

TOT daily traders are now advised to go 300% short at SPX 1544 stop.  That’s about 2 points below the current price.  If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1551.  If not stopped out AND if the SPX is closing down on the day, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.  If the SPX is closing up on the day, cover your short on the close and go overnight flat.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again 6 hours before the start of tomorrow’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, July 23, 2007.

The SPX declined 18.98 points Friday to close at 1534.10.  TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1553.19, covered the short at SPX 1535.00, then went 200% long at SPX 1536, and liquidated that profitably as well at SPX 1538.  It was one of our best days ever.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9359.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1075.17 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.71 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish, and, as I’ve been saying, the market is likely to top out this month – if it hasn’t already done so. 

The most likely probability today is for the market to rally in the early going and then sell off again as the rally fails.  I will be looking for the tipping point at which to go short, and if and when I find it, I will advise you in an intraday update.  Otherwise, stand aside for the time being.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 2:25 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 20, 2007.

After booking a huge profit with a 400% short position this morning, TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1536 about an hour ago.  The SPX is currently about 1541.  Take your profit on the current long position at SPX 1544 limit or at SPX 1538 stop or at the market on the close, whichever of those three possibilities occurs first.  Go into the weekend flat.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again 6 hours before the start of Monday’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 12:35 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 20, 2007.

TOT daily traders went 400% short on the opening today and took profits by covering that short at SPX 1535 a few minutes ago.

As I said on the regular message, “My analysis shows a 60% probability that the market will reverse by mid-morning and move in the opposite direction from the direction it trades in the early going.”  I see no reason to change that view.  Accordingly, TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1536 stop.  That’s just about 1 point above the current level.  If you go long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 1529.  If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Monday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again 6 hours before the start of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, July 20, 2007.

The SPX advanced 6.91 points yesterday to close at 1553.08.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1554 on Tuesday and covered the position profitably at SPX 1540 Wednesday, but were on the sidelines yesterday.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9283.01 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1094.15 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.48 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish, and, as I’ve been saying, the market is likely to top out this month – if it hasn’t already done so. 

Yesterday, at 3:00 p.m., I disseminated an intraday message which advised going 400% short at SPX 1547.40 stop.  I also added, “If SPX 1547.40 is not breached this afternoon, I believe it will be breached tomorrow morning (or sooner, by proxy in the futures market, in the overnight session).”  And indeed, it was breached, “by proxy” in the 4:00 to 4:15 pm runoff yesterday afternoon.  So, if you haven’t yet gone short, do indeed go 400% short at the market this morning.

HOWEVER, my analysis shows a 60% probability that the market will reverse by mid-morning and move in the opposite direction from the direction it trades in the early going.  Therefore, we will use very tight stops:  If you go short, use a protective buy stop 5 points above the opening price (as reported on www.bigcharts.com).  If the SPX declines to 1545, lower that stop to SPX 1550.  If the SPX then declines further to 1540, lower the stop to SPX 1543, and for each further 2 point decline, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  If stopped out prior to 10:45 a.m., I will have an intraday message at 11:00 a.m., Eastern time.  If stopped out after 10:45 a.m., I will have an intraday message within one hour of that event.  If not stopped out at all, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:00 pm intraday update of Turov on Timing for Thursday, July 19, 2007.

The market opened strongly and has been moving nowhere since then.  If the intraday lows made earlier this afternoon fail to hold, all hell could break loose on the downside.

TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at SPX 1547.40 stop.  If you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop.  If still short on the close, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

NOTE:  If SPX 1547.40 is not breached this afternoon, I believe it will be breached tomorrow morning (or sooner, by proxy in the futures market, in the overnight session).  So, if you agree with this recommendation, you might wish to go short on the close (or to watch carefully and perhaps trade on the overnight session) instead of waiting for the morning.  But “officially” we will adhere to the SPX 1547.40 stop.
 
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at the regular time.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, July 19, 2007.

The SPX declined 3.20 points yesterday to close at 1546.17.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1554 on Tuesday and covered the position profitably at SPX 1540 yesterday.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9283.01 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1087.24 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.54 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish, and, as I’ve been saying, the market is likely to top out this month – if it hasn’t already done so. 

The daily model is neutral today, albeit with a slightly negative bias.  The risk component of the model remains high, and so either going long or short has more risk than on an average day.  We will stand aside for the time being, although if circumstances are right, I might have a late day interim update with a short sale recommendation.  It does, however, depend on the right circumstances.    

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, July 18, 2007.

The SPX declined 0.15 point yesterday to close at 1549.37.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1554 on Monday, sold it at the same price on Tuesday, and then went 200% short at the same price.  We have held the short position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9264.27 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1090.44 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.50 to one.

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.  I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX).  I further believe the current cyclical bull will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.

The intermediate term model remains bearish, and, as I’ve been saying, the market is likely to top out this month – if it hasn’t already done so. 

The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, but the risk component is at a maximum high.  This is a very dangerous market.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  Lower your stop to a breakeven SPX 1554.  If the SPX declines to 1545, lower your stop to SPX 1550, and for each equivalent 5 point decline, lower your stop by an equivalent 5 points.  If still short on the close, carry it overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.